I recently watched an AMA live stream featuring a senior executive from a leading exchange. Although most of the content wasn't particularly groundbreaking, the topic of the "super cycle" caught my attention.

He mentioned some interesting details about the super cycle—such as the possibility that the bear market after 2026 might break the traditional four-year cycle pattern, and a prediction that the next bull run could push BTC to at least $200,000. However, after hearing these, I was reminded of the traditional four-year cycle theory. I took a closer look and found that the two logics are not actually contradictory.

First, let's look at the weekly intervals. According to the four-year cycle, the high points of each bull market are roughly 1430 to 1460 days apart, and the bear market from peak to bottom usually lasts around 365 days. This data has been validated over several cycles and remains quite stable.

Next, let's examine the growth patterns. Interestingly, the percentage increase beyond the previous high in each bull run has been decreasing, showing an exponential decay trend. Specifically, the recent bull markets surpassed the previous highs by 1497%, 248%, and 83%, respectively. Using the latest prediction of $200,000 for the next cycle, this suggests an approximate increase of 61% for this round.

Correspondingly, the decline during bear markets has also been decreasing linearly. The drops from peak to bottom in the last three bear markets were 86.58%, 84.22%, and 77.57%. Projecting this trend linearly, this cycle might see a decline of about 71.9%. This seems to validate the idea that the market is gradually "soft landing."

There's another notable phenomenon—the time it takes for the market to fall from a high point to near the bottom is getting shorter. In the past three bear markets, BTC took 396 days, 335 days, and 212 days from the peak to near the bottom. Following this linear shortening trend, this cycle might only take around 182 days. What does this imply? That the window for bottom-fishing is becoming increasingly narrow.

Based on these data points, I did a projection: regardless of whether the super cycle exists, from the perspective of the slow evolution of the four-year cycle, this bear market is likely to bottom out between April and May of this year, with a price range roughly between $35,000 and $50,000. Afterward, the market could restart the next bull cycle around September this year, ultimately reaching the cycle's top around September 2029, which aligns with the predicted $2 million mark.

Thinking this way, the four-year cycle doesn't seem to be completely outdated—it's just shifting. The most obvious change is that the duration of bull markets is lengthening, but the magnitude of each rally is shrinking; bear markets are shortening, but the depth of declines is becoming shallower. Market volatility is becoming less extreme.

If this cycle model remains valid, then the strategy is quite clear. Starting from the second half of this year, adopt a dollar-cost averaging approach to accumulate BTC, holding until around Q4 2029. Based on this cycle projection, the average return could be approximately 600%. Of course, this requires patience to endure the current bear market and confidence that this cycle theory isn't completely invalidated.