2026-01-16 08:24:40

Bitcoin has fallen from the recent rebound high of 87,900 to below 96,200, and has not recovered for over 12 hours, confirming that this key support has been lost. The 5-3-5 rebound structure starting from the low of 80,600 is currently ending and entering a correction phase, which is expected to last until around the 28th of this month.

The short-term support and resistance line is at 94,500. If this level holds, there is still potential for a new high and the formation of a standard five-wave upward drive, with target zones between 90K and 100K. However, it should be noted that even if a new high is broken, no clear reversal signals are visible for now.

From a moving average perspective, the 30-day moving average (around 90,213) remains upward, and the 60-day moving average (89,881) has turned upward for the first time, providing support for medium- and short-term bulls. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands (MA20: 91,474) continues to move upward, serving as the current strongest support level and entry point for long positions.

Regarding MACD, both lines are above the zero axis, maintaining bullish characteristics, but the fast line on the daily chart has slowed significantly, indicating a weakening bullish momentum. The 4-hour MACD has formed a death cross, suggesting a possible top around 97,900. The RSI has fallen back to 64.2, still in the strong zone but approaching overbought levels, and has formed a bearish divergence, indicating an increased probability of a pullback.

From a chart pattern perspective, if 94,500 holds, the risk of a breakout of the ascending wedge is low, and it may evolve into an upward channel mode. Short-term volatility is expected within the channel. Once the rebound's end is identified, a new decline will begin, likely breaking below the channel or wedge lower boundary. Key support levels include the 30-day moving average (90,213), the middle Bollinger Band (91,474), and the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement at 92,600. Holding this range is essential for the continuation of the rebound.

BTC-0,49%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

11 Likes

Reward
11
5
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

FlashLoanKing

· 01-16 08:52

If you can't hold 94500, just break through to 92600 directly, anyway it's a matter of time.

View OriginalReply0

RektRecorder

· 01-16 08:47

Can 94500 really hold? It feels risky.

View OriginalReply0

HashBandit

· 01-16 08:37

honestly those support levels are giving me mining-era flashbacks... back when i could actually make money without watching charts 24/7. 94500 or bust? ngl feels like copium tbh. if it tanks through 90k i'm gonna be sick

Reply0

PuzzledScholar

· 01-16 08:37

If 94500 doesn't break, there's still hope; if it does, we'll have to wait until the 28th. This rebound is indeed a bit虚。 It's really just testing repeatedly there, so annoying. When can we get a clear direction? The 30-day moving average is still holding, but I see the MACD death cross. The bullish momentum is indeed waning, but it hasn't崩溃 after being overbought for so long, which is a bit strange. Support levels are layered down, and in the end, it depends on whether 92600 can hold. Otherwise, it will need to be洗 again. The entry point for long positions is indeed at the middle band of Bollinger, but I'm worried that after entering, it will start震荡 again and become frustrating.

View OriginalReply0

SmartContractRebel

· 01-16 08:34

94500 really can't hold, I already felt an adjustment was coming.

View OriginalReply0