Recent political struggles over the Federal Reserve Chair nomination are unexpectedly reshaping market expectations. Judicial investigations, originally intended to exert pressure, have instead disrupted established plans.

Data speaks— the probability of Powell stepping down in May has dropped from 74% to 45%. The market’s once confident year-end resignation timetable is now wavering. Behind this shift lies the complex power struggle within the Federal Reserve leadership.

Initially seen as a "hawkish rising star," Waller's support has surpassed others, causing the White House’s personnel adjustment plans to spiral out of control. Ironically, the pressure on Powell has not weakened his position; instead, it may allow him to continue steering as a board member until 2028—becoming a more covert and harder-to-challenge form of power.

This has significant implications for the crypto market. As a symbol of the Fed’s independence, Powell’s long-term tenure suggests that the direction of monetary policy will be less influenced by external factors. The market’s previous optimistic expectations for rate cuts may need to be reassessed.

The confrontation between political intervention and the central bank’s ironclad stance is nearing a conclusion— the system has won. This outcome will directly impact the global liquidity landscape and asset pricing logic in the coming years.