2026-01-16 08:28:38

Regarding Ethereum's future performance, I have spent a lot of time tracking data.

Starting from the 4900 level, I have thoroughly analyzed almost every wave and turning point. There are logical reasons for both rises and falls—I understand them quite well.

Based on my understanding of bull trap scenarios and technical analysis, my view is that ETH returning to above 10,000 (referring to the 10,000+ price range) has a **probability actually greater than 50%**.

Of course, the crypto market is always full of uncertainties. But when considering on-chain data, trading structures, and macro cycles comprehensively, the current correction might actually be a better accumulation phase. What are your thoughts?

ETH-0,5%

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LayoffMiner

· 18h ago

Above ten thousand yuan? I think, unless the Federal Reserve causes some trouble again, it would have broken through long ago. Climbing from 4900 to now is quite interesting, but brother, with your 50% confidence... I feel a bit conservative. On-chain data really speaks for itself; it all depends on how long retail investors can hold on.

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SigmaValidator

· 18h ago

What if it breaks through? My all-in chips will come to life.

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Ser_APY_2000

· 18h ago

Alright, fine. I can't understand on-chain data anyway, so I'll just wait for the bottom to buy in.

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CoinBasedThinking

· 18h ago

Saying more than 50% is a bit conservative. I don't think 10,000 yuan is a dream; it all depends on whether this round can break through the psychological barrier.

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GasWaster

· 19h ago

Above 10,000 yuan? I think this depends on whether Ethereum has the fate of a vampire fork. All these data points are really just about the market sentiment; don't put too much trust in the 50% probability estimate. I'm currently hesitant to add to my ETH holdings; let's wait until a breakdown occurs.

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