The game between institutions and retail investors is becoming increasingly evident.

Since the ETF approval in 2024, Bitcoin has long ceased to be a playground for retail investors. Currently, institutional holdings account for as much as 24%, with BlackRock alone holding 800,000 coins, a number much larger than MicroStrategy’s. At the current BTC price of 96,000, although it has retraced significantly from the peak of 126,000 last year, the real focus is on this—institutions are aggressively accumulating at this moment. On the first day of 2026, ETF net inflows reached $470 million, equivalent to daily buying. From another perspective, retail investors are selling while large funds are buying, and the dominance of the market has already shifted.

Should you get in now? It all depends on these signals.

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart shows an ascending flag pattern, which theoretically should continue upward. However, the MACD is showing signs of slowing down, and the RSI is approaching overbought territory. Short-term support is at 95,000; if broken, it could drop to 94,000. Resistance on the upside is at 97,000; only a break through here could potentially reach 100,000. Frankly, chasing the rally at this level is risky and prone to getting trapped; waiting for a pullback before entering is a safer approach.

But on-chain data tells a different story. Whales holding over 1,000 coins have been selling, but now they are suddenly accumulating again—this shift usually signals a long-term bullish outlook. More importantly, the weekly RSI has broken above the downtrend, a pattern that is exactly the same as the one before last April’s rally. In other words, the actions of large holders and the long-term technical signals are pointing in the same direction.