Is the recent BTC rally really driven by spot buying? Not necessarily.

Recent data shows interesting patterns. According to on-chain analysis, the largest liquidation of short positions is currently underway, with forced liquidations pushing the price upward—appearing grand but actually driven by leverage. Such situations are not uncommon, but the question is, how long can this last?

Looking at the details reveals more. The selling pressure from OG holders has noticeably eased, and supply is tightening, which sounds good. But on the other hand, whales are quietly reducing their long positions and shifting to hedging strategies, while retail investors are chasing the rally and increasing leverage. This contrast is worth pondering—history shows that whenever this happens, it often leads to sideways movement or a correction.

In simple terms, without genuine spot buying support, a rally supported solely by leverage is inherently fragile. It can push higher in the short term, but the risk of leverage reset is always present. There needs to be a continuous influx of new spot demand, or at least be cautious of that moment when "leverage unwinds." The trading logic at this point shouldn't just focus on price gains but also on the structure.