#数字资产市场动态 $DASH

Rate Cut Dreams Shattered? Federal Reserve Probability of Holding Rates in January Surges to 95%

Market expectations have done a 180-degree turn. Just a few months ago, traders were pouring money into bets on a rate cut in April, but now almost all have changed their stance— the probability of a rate cut in January has dropped to just 5%, shifting focus to the June window.

Why the sudden change? The US economy has shown no signs of weakening. Looking at initial jobless claims data, for the week ending January 10th, claims dropped to 198,000, well below the expected 215,000. Coupled with the declining December unemployment rate, this directly bursts the short-term rate cut bubble. Federal Reserve officials are also not idle, one after another making hawkish remarks: Atlanta Fed President Bostic said "no need to rush," Chicago Fed President Goolsbee emphasized "controlling inflation is the top priority," and Kansas City Fed President Scheidecker outright opposes further rate cuts.

What does Wall Street think? Goldman Sachs' latest forecast predicts a 25 basis point rate cut in June and September, with core inflation expected to approach the 2% target by year's end. But there are also warnings—if policies remain too loose, it could replay the tragic stagflation of the 1970s.

The market is already moving. The dollar's decline has narrowed, safe-haven assets like gold and silver surged but are now starting to face pressure, and risk assets that previously benefited from falling rates are also changing expectations.

For the crypto world, this is no joke. Historically, when the Fed shifts policy, Bitcoin has plummeted over 17% in a single day, with over 1.64 million traders getting liquidated. Now, with interest rates remaining unexpectedly high and liquidity easing window pushed further back, the crypto market’s prolonged high-rate battle has just begun.

What’s your view—can the Fed really cut rates in June? Will Bitcoin withstand this high-interest cycle? Should we wait until the risk of a second inflation truly surfaces before crypto assets can turn into new safe havens?