Bitcoin pulls back to $95.56K after rebound — multiple signals suggest this rally may struggle to continue

Technical Indicators Show Signs of Fatigue, OBV Sends Warning Signals

Bitcoin price, after a strong rebound at the beginning of the year, has recently fallen back to around $95.56K, with a 24-hour decline of -1.11%. From a technical perspective, BTC continues to face resistance within the $93,500–$95,000 range, repeatedly attempting to break upward but being rejected, which is not characteristic of a healthy upward trend.

The key resistance zone of $93,700–$94,500 has become a pivotal point in determining the short-term direction. If this area cannot be effectively broken through, downside risks will become more pronounced. Notably, the OBV indicator (On-Balance Volume) has already shown clear bearish divergence signals, which often indicate that upward momentum may be waning. Although trading volume has remained relatively stable since December last year, the supertrend indicator has also failed to confirm a breakout, further reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

If the price breaks below the critical support level of $90,400, it could quickly decline to $87,000, or even test lower zones around $83,000–$80,000. To restart upward momentum, BTC must close daily candles above $98,000–$100,600 to dispel the bearish cloud.

Abnormal Market Structure: Altcoins Leading Gains Hint at Risks

A more concerning signal comes from the market structure itself. Typically, in the early stages of a bull market, Bitcoin should lead the rally, with its dominance rising as capital concentrates in the most liquid assets. However, this cycle has shown the opposite—altcoins outperform the broader market, and Bitcoin’s dominance has declined.

This phenomenon has historically appeared during bear market rebounds rather than in the initial phases of sustained growth. The abnormal expansion of risk appetite suggests that participants may be overly optimistic, which often serves as a warning before a reversal.

On-Chain Whale Activity: Not Actively Participating

On-chain data further confirms this cautious outlook. Currently, the number of addresses holding coins is 55,316,918, but more attention should be paid to the behavior of large holders. Addresses holding 100–1,000 BTC—typically representing institutions and high-confidence investors—have not shown the expected active accumulation after recent price corrections.

According to on-chain analysis, the number of addresses categorized as BTC Fish (10–100 BTC), Sharks (100–1,000 BTC), Whales (1,000–10,000 BTC), and Humpbacks (>10,000 BTC) has decreased over the past month, indicating a continued dispersal among large holders. Notably, whale addresses decreased by 20 in the past month, with only 4 new whale wallets added in the past week, and just 2 added in the last 24 hours.

This sluggish rebound suggests that even as Bitcoin falls into potential demand zones, large holders have not decisively entered the market. In previous bottom cycles, this group would typically lead and firmly accumulate. The absence of such behavior indicates that recent price increases are more driven by short-term positions rather than long-term conviction.

Demand Indicators Remain Weak, Lacking Follow-up Buying

Bitcoin’s apparent demand indicator continues to decline. This metric tracks the net accumulation of BTC by active market participants, providing a clear reflection of genuine buying power. According to the BGeometrics Demand Index, demand only strengthened when BTC explicitly broke above $100,000, accompanied by strong upward momentum.

Whenever Bitcoin falls below $100,000 or enters sideways consolidation, demand remains weak. Prolonged consolidation phases accompanied by declining demand indicators suggest reduced spot participation and a lack of subsequent buying interest. This pattern indicates that recent rebounds are more driven by price momentum rather than natural accumulation.

The failure of demand indicators to reverse further supports the view that this rally lacks the support of long-term buyers. This is a key factor in assessing whether this upward trend can be sustained.

Final Judgment: Exercise Caution, Watch Key Levels

Based on comprehensive analysis of technical indicators, on-chain data, market structure, and demand metrics, Bitcoin’s current situation is indeed precarious. Multiple rejections within the $93,500–$95,000 zone indicate active selling pressure, while $90,400 remains a critical support to maintain the current structure.

If BTC cannot stabilize above $98,000–$100,600 in the short term, the risk of a bull trap should not be underestimated. The bearish divergence in OBV provides technical confirmation of this outlook. Only a renewed momentum pushing toward $110,000 can truly dispel market doubts. Until then, traders should remain vigilant and strictly adhere to risk management principles.