Bitcoin breaks through 95,000: market sentiment revealed by oscillation options data

【Crypto World】Bitcoin has gained nearly 10% since the beginning of the year, and after surpassing $95,000, it has entered a consolidation phase. Recent observations of the options market reveal some clues — trading volume is steadily recovering, but investors' strategies have changed. It’s no longer about quick in-and-out short-term battles; instead, more traders are positioning across multiple time horizons.

The ratio of long to short options positions tells a lot. During the large contract expiration on December 26 last year, put options were dominant, pushing the ratio up to 0.78. But over the past two weeks, as new long positions have entered, this number has fallen back to around 0.71, a decline of about 10% — clearly indicating market sentiment has warmed.

Implied Volatility (IV) is also contracting, with data across various expiration dates showing this trend. What does this mean? It suggests traders are less worried about sudden drops, and the urgency to hedge against upward moves is diminishing. The IV for one cycle has even fallen back to recent lows.

Even more interesting is the divergence in skew indicators. Short-term skew remains relatively flat, but long-term skew is rising, reflecting that the market isn’t just defensive anymore — there’s a non-hedging demand for potential upside opportunities.

Overall, the signals from the options market are quite subtle — the market is confident at high levels but not completely relaxed. Traders are still holding put options as a defensive measure, indicating that the risk of downside remains. This cautious optimism seems to suggest the market has reached a critical point.