Wosh's probability of being nominated as Federal Reserve Chair rises to 60%, hawkish stance decreases, with rate cuts and QT happening simultaneously?

【BlockBeats】Latest news shows that the market landscape for the Federal Reserve Chair candidate has once again changed. When Trump recently mentioned White House National Economic Council Director Harshest, he hinted that he might remain in his current position, causing the market to reassess the true frontrunner for the Fed leadership.

The prediction market data is clear: Harshest's nomination probability has fallen from previous mainstream expectations to 15%, now on par with Federal Reserve Board member Waller. In contrast, Kevin Woor's nomination probability has surged to over 60%, making him the current favorite. Interestingly, Harshest himself also publicly stated that Woor and Rieder “would also be great Fed Chairs”—a remark that somewhat hints he has a premonition of the final outcome.

The policy stances of the two main candidates are markedly different. As Trump's “absolute dove” ally, Harshest advocates for relatively loose monetary policy. Woor, on the other hand, is a classic hawk, but the market generally expects him to support moderate rate cuts while continuing to shrink the balance sheet (QT).

Woor's economic views are quite unique. He previously proposed the idea that “inflation is a choice,” believing that supply chain issues or geopolitical factors are only surface-level causes, with the real root of inflation lying in the Fed's own policy decisions. More interestingly, he is extremely optimistic about the US economy's prospects, firmly believing that AI and deregulation will trigger a productivity boom similar to that of the 1980s. This combination of positions is neither entirely radical nor lacking policy flexibility.