#Gate广场创作者新春激励 The Three Major Changes in the Crypto Market and New Trends in 2026

Recent Market Fluctuations and Underlying Deep Trends:
Trend 1: Fundamental Shift in Market Structure - End of the Retail-Driven Speculative Cycle, Era of Institutions Begins:
• Net inflow of BTC on exchanges drops to a three-year low, indicating short-term speculators are exiting.
• Continuous outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges, with a single-day net outflow of 14,484 BTC.
• Market is transitioning from a retail-dominated cycle to institutional liquidity distribution.
Deep Transformation of Market Narrative:
• From simple store of value to a multifunctional application platform.
• Functional assets (like ETH) are beginning to show long-term potential surpassing BTC.
• The ETH/BTC exchange rate is showing initial signs of recovery, with structural advantages emerging.
Trend 2: Regulatory Storms Intensify - Compliance Becomes the Bottom Line for Survival, Global Regulatory Frameworks Take Root:
• The US CLARITY Act legislation process accelerates, clarifying legal boundaries.
• CRS and CARF collaborative regulatory systems are launched, bringing crypto assets under “financial account” supervision.
• China’s central bank will implement a “Triple Filtering” mechanism in 2026: licensing, compliance review, and law enforcement coordination.
Regulatory Red Lines Tighten:
• OTC trading, Ponzi schemes, and airdrops involving recruitment are classified as criminal offenses.
• The risk coefficient for individuals participating in virtual currency trading rises to over 90%.
• Italy’s withholding tax increases from 26% to 33%, and the €2000 tax exemption threshold is canceled.
Trend 3: Liquidity Expansion Driven - Macro Environment Turns to Easing, Global Liquidity Turning Point Has Arrived:
• Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expansion, increased bank lending, and falling mortgage rates.
• The probability of Fed rate cuts in 2026 rises to a relatively high level.
• China’s central bank continues its “moderate easing” stance, flexibly using reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions.
Institutional Funds Re-enter the Market:
• Bitcoin ETF has recently rebounded, rising about 8% over the past week.
• Large companies like Bitmine Immersion continue to increase ETH holdings.
• Visa’s stablecoin settlement volume has an annualized rate of $4.5 billion, with demand growing month by month.
Trend 4: Technological Innovation Accelerates - Ethereum’s Moat Continues to Widen, Technical Advantages Highlighted:
• Mainnet scaling plans will increase throughput tenfold, supporting a target price of $4,000.
• Dominance in stablecoins, RWA tokenization, and DeFi remains unshaken.
• Long-term bullish outlook to $40,000, with widespread recognition of surpassing BTC potential.
Digital Renminbi Ecosystem Upgrades:
• From “Digital Cash 1.0” to fully entering “Deposit Currency 2.0.”
• Bank wallet balances accrue interest at current deposit rates and are included in deposit insurance.
• Transaction volume is expected to surpass 5 trillion yuan in 2026.
Investment Insights and Risk Warnings
Three Certainty Tracks:
1. Compliance Survival - Regulatory red lines continue to tighten, compliance is the survival threshold.
2. Rise of Pragmatism - Revaluation of functional assets’ value.
3. Institutionalization Trend - Long-term holders strengthen control over supply.
Key Risk Alerts:
• Tax reporting complexity greatly increases, compliance costs rise.
• Small investments become less cost-effective, market entry barriers grow.
• Cross-border tax evasion routes are thoroughly blocked, leaving no regulatory gaps.