#我的2026第一条帖

Fed Chair Direction Confirmed: A Silent Macro Trigger for the Next Crypto Expansion
A single political signal has significantly shifted global macro expectations.
Trump’s direct statement has effectively locked in the next Federal Reserve Chair narrative, with Kevin Woor’s nomination probability jumping to 60%, clearly leading other candidates.
This development is not just mildly positive for crypto. It represents a confidence reset that historically precedes the early phase of a major bull cycle.
1. Macro Foundation: Why Woor Represents a Structural Positive for Crypto
Kevin Woor’s monetary framework stands in sharp contrast to recent policy uncertainty.
He openly states that inflation is a policy decision, not an uncontrollable force. His approach emphasizes balance-sheet reduction (QT) as the primary inflation control mechanism, creating room for lower nominal interest rates without destabilizing the dollar system.
This direction aligns closely with Trump’s objective of reducing borrowing costs while restoring monetary credibility. Compared to Powell’s reactive policy swings, Woor offers clarity, discipline, and predictability — exactly what institutional capital requires before increasing exposure to risk assets.
For Bitcoin in particular, this reinforces its valuation logic as digital gold within a more disciplined monetary environment.
2. Policy and News Alignment: Regulatory Uncertainty Is Fading
Although the US Digital Asset Clarification Act faces temporary delays, bipartisan negotiations continue. The broader trend is clear: crypto assets are moving out of regulatory ambiguity.
Additional signals reinforce this shift: • Trump’s pardon of CZ and explicit support for the crypto industry
• Policy risk for major crypto businesses has been materially reduced
Institutional behavior confirms this change:
• Harvard-related funds increased Bitcoin ETF exposure by 257%
• MicroStrategy continues systematic accumulation
• Bitcoin ETFs record sustained net inflows, reflecting real capital commitment
International capital is also entering: South Korea now permits corporations to allocate up to 5% of their own capital to crypto. With more than 3,500 companies preparing allocations, the potential incremental inflow reaches the trillion-dollar scale.
3. On-Chain Confirmation: Supply Lock-Up and Liquidity Accumulation
On-chain data strongly supports the macro narrative.
Bitcoin’s illiquid supply has reached historical highs, indicating that long-term holders and institutions are locking in positions rather than distributing. This level of supply concentration historically appears near the early stages of bull markets.
At the same time, the stablecoin market has expanded to $266.5 billion, with nearly all supply USD-pegged and supporting 94% of crypto trading volume. Under a Woor-style policy framework, stablecoin capitalization could expand toward $1 trillion, providing sustained market liquidity.
CME data shows institutional long positions continuing to rise, while major liquidation pressure is concentrated around the $110,000 level. A clean breakout could trigger over $120 million in short liquidations, accelerating upward momentum.
Conclusion: A Structural Bull Market Is Taking Shape
Four forces are now aligned: • Macro liquidity conditions
• Policy and regulatory clarity
• On-chain supply compression
• Institutional accumulation
This is no longer a narrative-driven market. It is a structural imbalance where buying pressure exceeds selling pressure.
Short-term targets: Bitcoin toward $120,000
Ethereum breaking $4,000
High-quality altcoins following with delayed but aggressive rebounds
The positioning phase is already underway. The market is not waiting for confirmation capital has begun to move.