CZ on 2026: Pro-Crypto Policy May Challenge Traditional Four-Year Cycle

Source: CryptoTale Original Title: CZ Warns 2026 May Test Crypto’s Four-Year Cycle Model Original Link: Founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) argues that 2026 may become a structural inflection point for crypto markets. He suggests that the traditional four-year cycle model is now colliding with a U.S. policy environment that is openly pro-crypto, potentially reshaping capital behavior and weakening the market’s reliance on historical patterns alone.

Institutional Adoption Leads the Way

Institutional adoption dominated CZ’s assessment of 2025. He noted that ETFs and related products have moved significant U.S. institutional capital into crypto, reflecting a broader shift in how traditional finance approaches digital assets.

A key example is JPMorgan reportedly advising clients to allocate 1% to 4% of their assets into crypto. CZ emphasizes this matters because the bank once dismissed Bitcoin. Such a reversal signals how much sentiment has changed at the top of the financial system.

Retail Participation Lags Behind

Retail participation, however, has not grown at the same rate. While retail users remain active, CZ has not observed the same scale of inflows that appeared in earlier cycles. Whether retail demand rises later remains uncertain.

CZ also characterized 2025 as an unusual bull year, with the major rally occurring in January before prices largely stayed elevated. Despite strong performance near $90,000 for Bitcoin, investors continued to demand sharper upside, suggesting expectations have risen faster than the market’s ability to satisfy them.

The 2026 Outlook: Competing Forces

The outlook for 2026 comes down to two competing forces. The first is the traditional four-year crypto cycle, which historically points toward a weaker year after peak momentum. The second is U.S. macro-policy alignment with crypto, which adds a new variable to cycle-based thinking.

CZ highlighted that U.S. presidents often tie their performance to market strength. He suggested that policy makers may employ monetary easing tools—such as rate cuts, quantitative easing, and Federal Reserve decisions—to support liquidity. Stronger liquidity conditions typically benefit risk assets like crypto.

However, CZ offered no certainty on which trend would dominate, noting that it is difficult to predict whether cycle pressure or policy support would take control. A super cycle is possible, but he does not claim strong forecasting confidence.

Industry Building and New User Guidance

CZ pointed to the broader ecosystem of blockchain projects, noting that funding extends across the crypto sector. He emphasized that blockchain’s purpose is to build faster, cheaper, and more reliable financial systems that could expand access to financial services globally.

For new users, CZ recommends learning systematically through educational resources, starting with small amounts, and testing wallets and transactions before scaling exposure.