2026-01-18 07:29:00

Prediction markets are showing Bitcoin at a 43% probability of breaching the $100k mark come January. Pretty wild swings on these odds lately. The volatility speaks volumes about how uncertain traders are on near-term price direction right now.

BTC-2,23%

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WhaleMistaker

· 20h ago

43%? That's about the same as flipping a coin. Do you even have the nerve to bring it up?

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HodlVeteran

· 01-18 07:59

43%? That probability is even lower than my confidence when I went all-in during the 2017 bull market... It seems that big investors are also uncertain inside.

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gm_or_ngmi

· 01-18 07:56

43% chance? That means there's a 57% chance it's less than 100,000? Sounds like the market is still hesitant to bet.

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ProbablyNothing

· 01-18 07:56

43%? Uh, this probability looks like rolling dice...

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GasFeeAssassin

· 01-18 07:54

43%? That's an incredibly low probability. I thought it would be higher.

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DAOplomacy

· 01-18 07:45

honestly the 43% figure is arguably just institutional theater at this point—these prediction markets have such non-trivial externalities baked into their pricing mechanisms that reading them as ground truth feels almost naive, ngl

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