2026-01-18 07:32:03

Looking at Bitcoin's trend, the most urgent issue right now is whether it can stabilize within the $98k to $100k range. These two levels are not just technical hurdles but also psychological defenses—once effectively broken through and held, the probability of new buy-in entering the market will significantly increase.

Looking further up, the $106k to $109k zone has repeatedly blocked the market in the past. The repetitive nature of history tells us how significant this level is. If BTC can chew through this bone, the continuation of the bulls will have a more solid foundation. More aggressive bulls are also eyeing the $114k to $116k range, which is above the previous high. Breaking through this would be a true signal of a new high-level bull market. Above $125k? That depends on whether market sentiment truly returns to strength.

Conversely, the downside boundaries are also worth noting. The $90k to $92k zone is the last line of defense. It has been tested repeatedly, and holding this level gives bulls a chance to catch their breath. If this line is truly broken, the next support level would be around $83k to $85k. A larger safety net is the $70k to $75k zone; in case of a deep market correction, this area can typically attract a batch of bottom-fishing funds.

As for extreme scenarios—if sentiment completely collapses or macro black swan events occur, the $50k to $60k range is not impossible, but that would truly be an extreme contingency plan.

From a practical perspective, short-term traders should consider going long around the $90k level with tight stops below the next support, and start taking profits near resistance levels. Mid- to long-term players should wait until $100k stabilizes with a clear breakout confirmation or re-enter gradually after repeated confirmation of major support levels. Regardless of the strategy, macro factors—such as inflation data, interest rate decisions, and regulatory trends—should never be ignored, as they can instantly amplify market volatility.

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CompoundPersonality

· 2h ago

Breaking the 98k barrier is really necessary; if not, everything else is just talk --- That's right, historical resistance levels do carry weight, but it feels like public opinion is too optimistic now, which makes a crash more likely --- For mid-to-long-term, stay at 100k before acting; short-term traders, I really can't handle this high risk --- The key still depends on the Federal Reserve; once the data is out, all technical analysis must give way --- Will the extreme scenario of 50k to 60k really happen? It seems like alarmist talk --- The idea of going long at 90k is good, just worried that a sudden drop might break support directly, and that would be the end --- Still dreaming of above $125k, let's first stabilize at 100k --- Writing about macro black swan events is correct; in our line of work, we're not afraid of black swans, but we're afraid of black swans appearing suddenly --- Gradually entering the market is a safe move; those going all-in are just gamblers --- Near resistance levels, you really need to take profits; greed usually leads to similar outcomes

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CexIsBad

· 4h ago

Getting from 98k to 100k is a must, otherwise it's just a false breakout. --- Honestly, breaking 90k is heartbreaking; we need to see if 70k can hold. --- I'm not even afraid of the black swan flying in at 50k; it's all just a buying opportunity. --- $114k is the real new bull signal; the current gains are nothing. --- The macro black swan is the most annoying; data releases instantly reverse the trend, unpredictable. --- Playing around 90k in the short term is too risky; I prefer to wait until 100k stabilizes before acting. --- The 106k barrier has been repeated so many times in history; can we break through this time? Not confident. --- Above 125k is purely sentiment-driven; it's a bit too optimistic to talk about it now. --- I feel that 83k-85k is the real dip zone; entering now is indeed a gamble.

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potentially_notable

· 14h ago

If 98k can't be broken through, there's no need to keep fussing; just wait. --- 100k is indeed a psychological barrier, but the real test is whether we can hold it. --- That 106k level has been really stuck many times; this time probably will still be tough. --- It's easy to say, but honestly, it all depends on when the black swan will fly in. --- If 90k breaks, just go ahead and buy the dip at 70k; there's no need to watch the process. --- Short-term, buying low at 90k? That's foolish. Wait until 100k stabilizes before talking. --- Macroeconomic factors can turn around at any time; no matter how good the technical analysis is, it's useless. --- 125k? I think it's unlikely. First, get past 109k before bragging. --- This analysis is just for the retail investors; institutions have already run away. --- Anyway, the probability of breaking 50-60k is very small, which gives people confidence.

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AltcoinTherapist

· 14h ago

98k is indeed a tough hurdle; the psychological barrier is more deadly than the technical pressure. I can't remember how long I was stuck the last time I faced such a bottleneck. I'm especially cautious about the 106k level; history loves to play tricks here. Short-term, going long at 90k feels a bit like throwing a tantrum, so I prefer to wait until 100k stabilizes. On the macro side, once a data point is released, it can completely break the chart; it's too unpredictable. The plan for 50 to 60k seems a bit uncertain, unless doomsday really arrives.

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GasGrillMaster

· 14h ago

Is 100k really that hard? It feels like everyone trapped is just praying. --- The hurdle between 98 and 100 is a psychological battle. Breaking through it would directly rewrite the narrative. --- Wow, aggressive long positions targeting 114 might be too greedy. --- The biggest fear is the black swan. That 90k support line is useless now. --- Short-term, buying low around 90k sounds simple, but in practice, it’s all blood pressure. --- When a macro black swan hits, all technical charts are nonsense—there’s no pattern, no certainty. --- Only when 100k is firmly established can we say the bulls have a chance. Right now, it’s all just fake signals. --- That extreme plan of 50 to 60... don’t talk nonsense, it could easily cause a dump. --- The idea of entering in batches has been heard every bull market. Is it still effective this year? --- When interest rates change, the market instantly reacts in the opposite direction. The courage to go long is really impressive.

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SchrodingerWallet

· 14h ago

100k is just a psychological barrier; once broken, there will be stories to tell. --- Are you still talking about support and resistance? Looking at the macro is the real deal. --- Breaking $90k is what really matters; right now, it's just a wait-and-see situation. --- Extreme to 50k? Bro, your outlook is a bit too pessimistic. --- Short-term bottom fishing at 90k carries a really high risk. --- Mid to long-term is just about waiting for confirmation signals; there's no need to rush. --- Whether this wave of sentiment can hold until 100k is the key. --- When a macro black swan arrives, all support levels become useless. --- No matter how detailed you explain, in the end, it still depends on the market's mood. --- Stop-loss settings are too important for short-term traders; they can't be sloppy.

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JustHereForMemes

· 14h ago

If you can't break through 98k to 100k, you should check if you're buying at the top

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FallingLeaf

· 14h ago

Reaching 98k to 100k is a critical point; stay steady, or the subsequent story will be all for nothing. If we can't break 106k, let's not dream; the historical resistance level is right there. If 90k can't hold, just run; there's nothing more to say. I prefer to miss out than get trapped. Macro factors are truly unpredictable; data releases can cause instant reversals, and no one has a solution. Short-term, buy around 90; stop-loss must be firm, and this discipline must not be relaxed. Only when we stabilize at 100k can we dare to chase higher; previously, it was all just castles in the air. Patience is needed for medium to long-term. 50 to 60K is probably the ultimate bottom line; unless the sky falls, it won't drop that deep. Near resistance levels, take profits when the market looks good; greed has already been cut. This time, I learned to be smarter. The foundation of the bulls is becoming more solid, but don't get too arrogant. Black swans love to strike when you're relaxed.

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