#数字资产市场动态 Latest news: Trump recently revealed that he hopes National Economic Council Director Harret will continue to stay in his current position. This change in attitude has attracted market attention. Forecast market data shows that the probability of Harret becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair has fallen to 15%, while Kevin Waugh's nomination probability has surged to over 60%, making him the most favored candidate at the moment.

The key point is—Waugh's hawkish stance is very different from the "absolutely dovish" Harret. However, traders generally believe that even if Waugh takes office, rate cuts will still be the trend, and the reduction of the balance sheet(QT) will continue. What does this mean? The interest rate policy in 2026 may not be as accommodative.

Data speaks: According to forecast markets, by the end of 2026, the probability of no rate cuts at all is 11.8%, a 25 basis point cut is 30.3%, and a 50 basis point cut is 32.1%. In other words, the market's expectations for rate cuts in 2026 have significantly shrunk. Influenced by this news, spot gold and silver prices are under short-term pressure, with gold falling to around $4,550 per ounce, and silver retreating to about $87.5 per ounce. For cryptocurrency traders, this subtle shift in Federal Reserve policy is worth close monitoring.