#比特币价格与波动预测 Seeing this wave of predictions, I have to pour some cold water. The consensus figure of $150,000 sounds comfortable, but the logic behind it is worth pondering—Standard Chartered cut from $300,000 to $150,000, citing low institutional buying power as the reason. This in itself reveals the problem. When the enthusiasm of large institutions isn't in place, retail investors' FOMO cannot withstand even high levels of emotion.

What’s more heartbreaking is the technical analysis statement: if historical patterns repeat, Bitcoin could return to $40,000–$70,000. This is not a threat, but a reminder. The pitfalls I’ve encountered over the years tell me that predictions are always just predictions; the market never follows the script. Those analysts who once confidently declared certain outcomes have become jokes in hindsight.

Statements like decreasing volatility or breaking free from the four-year cycle sound like self-encouragement. But the reality is, as long as liquidity exists, extreme volatility is possible. Instead of obsessing over how high it can go in 2026, ask yourself: if your position gets halved, can you still sleep peacefully? If not, then you should reduce your holdings.

In the long run, Bitcoin is fine, but don’t be blinded by this wave of institutional bullishness. If you have chips, it’s okay to take some profits at the high; if you still want to buy in, think through the worst-case scenario before acting. Only those who survive will have the chance to see real gains.