2026-01-18 08:10:57

#美国核心物价涨幅不及市场预估 $STO

The start of 2026 in the financial markets feels like it's stuck in low gear. When the December US CPI year-over-year data of 2.7% was released, it was immediately taken as a signal of potential rate cuts, only for Fed officials to quickly pour cold water on that idea. On the surface, it looks like stable inflation data, but behind the scenes, there are a bunch of technical adjustments at play, which savvy traders can spot as real opportunities.

There's definitely some distortion in the data. The previous government shutdown disrupted November's figures, and December's CPI was affected by "correction effects," so inflation pressures haven't truly eased. A closer look reveals some interesting details—energy prices dropped sharply, offsetting food price increases; core goods and services prices are basically stagnant, with rent holding up the appearance of stability.

Market reactions further highlight the situation. US stocks initially opened higher but then collectively declined, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged and then retreated, only the AI sector kept rallying. Leading storage chip maker Micron Technology soared 7.8% in a single day, breaking the $400 billion market cap mark. The logic behind this is straightforward—rising demand for AI servers has sparked a "super cycle" in the chip industry, and some institutions predict storage chip prices could see an uncontrollable surge.

The rate cut expectations have already cooled off. The probability of a rate cut in January is only 5%, and by April, it’s only back up to 40%. The Fed is under political pressure from Trump and also has internal turbulence to manage. It needs to maintain independence while staying alert to the gap between inflation and the 2% target, so there's no rush.

Despite the apparent chaos, the actual opportunities are quite clear: the AI-driven chip sector is a known factor now, and the key points to watch are whether January’s CPI can continue to decline and whether the US bond yield can break above 4.5%.

What do you think? Will the Fed really cut rates before June? Are AI-related sectors still worth investing in? Drop your thoughts in the comments.

STO15,16%

AXS-12,94%

BERA2,97%

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WinterWarmthCat

· 5h ago

It's the same old correction effect; the real inflation pressure hasn't eased at all, and the rent support tactic is really slick. This round of AI chips definitely has some flavor. When Micron hit 400 billion, I knew the super cycle was coming. Interest rate cuts? Before June? Uh... I wouldn't dare bet on a 5% chance. The Federal Reserve is clearly still on the sidelines.

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ShibaMillionairen't

· 8h ago

The Federal Reserve's game is really impressive; they claim to ease inflation, but the data is all fake. It seems we can only bet on the AI track.

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just_another_wallet

· 8h ago

Micron's recent surge is a bit outrageous. The idea of a super cycle in chips is mentioned every year, but only a few actually benefit from the dividends. I'm still on the sidelines. Interest rate cuts are nowhere in sight. Instead of waiting for the Federal Reserve, it's better to focus on AI; at least the data won't lie. The CPI data is so inflated, and the market's reaction isn't honest either. No wonder retail investors are always a step behind. Rent prices are still supporting the data. Sellers are hesitant to say too much about it; there's a dirty story behind it. I wouldn't dare move if US bonds can't break 4.5%. Now entering the AI sector feels a bit like chasing a high.

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blocksnark

· 8h ago

Another show of "data虚虚实实" (virtual and real data). The Federal Reserve's tricks are really skillful. However, Micron's 7.8% move truly hit the mark; the opportunity to profit from AI chips is indeed real.

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StableGeniusDegen

· 8h ago

Interest rate cuts are happening, and the Federal Reserve's combination punches are really hitting the mark. AI chips are outrageous; Micron's recent surge has me envious. It was about time to jump on board.

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MiningDisasterSurvivor

· 8h ago

Once again, it's the AI chip super cycle. I've experienced the GPU mining crisis in 2017. Back then, I was just having fun alone. And what happened? Retail investors still got cut. The point about the data being inflated is correct, but don’t be fooled by the correction effect. I’ve heard this explanation too many times. The key is that the Federal Reserve doesn’t want to cut interest rates at all. No matter how much pressure Trump applies, they can’t ignore inflation as an excuse. I’ve seen through this long ago. Storage chips soaring 7.8%? The lessons from the bear market tell me that the more a single-day surge, the more cautious we should be. It smells too much like a Ponzi scheme. Cut interest rates before June? Dream on.

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DataChief

· 8h ago

The rate cut cooled down the market, but chips are heating up. I've seen this trick too many times. To be honest, the Fed folks are just putting on a show. The 5% chance of a rate cut on January 5th is basically telling you not to expect it. However, Micron's 7.8% rise is somewhat interesting; there's still some juice in the AI supercycle.

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