THE 4-YEAR CYCLE NARRATIVE JUST GOT SHAKEN UP

There's been a lot of talk about 2026 being the year things cool down, following the typical Bitcoin halving cycle pattern. Sure, that argument has historical merit. But here's what's actually worth paying attention to: the fundamental backdrop has shifted.

The major wildcard isn't the calendar or the math—it's the policy environment. A pro-crypto stance from Washington changes the game in ways past cycles didn't account for. Traditional models assumed regulatory headwinds; now you've got tailwinds.

This doesn't automatically invalidate the cyclical framework, but it does mean comparing 2026 to previous bear phases might be like comparing apples to oranges. When institutional adoption is accelerating and government isn't actively working against the space, the usual playbook gets rewritten.

The real question: can policy support override cycle dynamics, or do they just happen in parallel? That's the debate worth having.