2026-01-18 08:24:14

Looking at the recent XPL market, it really makes people feel conflicted. From a high of 1.69 down to now 0.13, the daily chart looks a bit daunting.

From a technical perspective, the 8-hour RSI has already fallen into the oversold zone, which theoretically could trigger a technical rebound at any time, but the moving averages overhead are holding it down quite firmly, indicating that the sellers haven't truly given up. In this situation, a clear reversal signal hasn't appeared yet, and it's really hard to say where the bottom is.

What's more troublesome is the supply issue. In July 2026, up to 25% of the total supply will be unlocked, roughly equivalent to 2.5 billion tokens. Under this kind of expected pressure, both major players and retail investors lack the motivation to push prices higher—unless the project team can come up with a sufficiently attractive story. The stablecoin payment narrative is still holding up, but under the current macro pressure, chasing the high now is really like taking a flying knife.

My view is, there's no need to rush into bottom fishing. Instead of waiting for the decline to stop, it's better to wait until the trading volume shrinks to the extreme and the market sentiment truly bottoms out, then look for a reversal signal. At this stage, just watch the show; there's no need to hold positions.

XPL-3,69%

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SigmaBrain

· 01-18 08:54

0.13 this price, I give up, directly cut tenfold, how much patience does that take? Waiting for a rebound signal? I think we still need the project team to show something, otherwise who would believe this story? 2.5 billion tokens dumped, honestly a bit hopeless, the main players probably already ran. RSI oversold is pointless, the moving averages are just pressing down there, I really don’t know where the bottom is. Rather than trying to catch the bottom, I’d rather watch the show. I’m just binge-watching anyway, since I didn’t leave any holdings.

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DeFiDoctor

· 01-18 08:53

The medical record shows that patient XPL is indeed in critical condition now. Dropping from 1.69 to 0.13 is not just a technical adjustment; it's organ failure happening. RSI oversold is a numbness signal, but it doesn't mean a rebound is guaranteed—the resistance line of the moving averages is like a blood clot; it needs to be cleared. More importantly, the 25% unlock scheduled for July 2026 is hanging over us as a projected risk, not something that can be fixed by technical analysis. My advice is not to rush into infusion; wait until its inflammation index truly drops to zero and the market cools down completely. Entering now is like adding salt to an open wound, which is unnecessary. This phase should be considered an observation period; wait until the diagnosis is clear before taking action.

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WhaleWatcher

· 01-18 08:51

1.69 to 0.13, what a drop... Mom, the knife catchers are still studying what moving averages --- 2.5 billion tokens dumped, any story spun now is pointless, I choose to lie flat and watch --- Instead of catching flying knives, better to drink tea. Wait until the emotions completely die down before talking --- Thinking of a rebound just because RSI is oversold? The line above my head is laughing --- There are still so many unlocks in 2026, jumping in now is just setting a trap for your future self --- Don't rush, watching dramas makes more money than playing mahjong --- Can the stablecoin payment narrative withstand the 2.5 billion tokens dumping? Why do I find it so hard to believe? --- This wave of market is not troubling us, but how the main funds are escaping --- The bottom is indeed hard to say, but the ceiling is already clear

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ETHmaxi_NoFilter

· 01-18 08:51

1.69 drops to 0.13, the decline is outrageous. In 2026, 25% will still be unlocked. Who dares to take this flying knife? --- The moving averages have crushed the rebound space, RSI oversold is useless, and no one really knows where the bottom is. --- I agree with the suggestion not to bottom fish. Wait until the trading volume completely diminishes; entering now is just giving away. --- The narrative of stablecoin payments can't hold up; macro pressure is right here. --- Instead of taking the flying knife, watching a show is better. I like this mindset. --- Wait, are we already crashing now over something that will happen in 2026? The story this project tells is just too unconvincing. --- The top is tightly pressed down by moving averages, technical rebounds are pointless, the main force has no confidence. --- No rush, wait until the market truly bottoms out before acting. Entering now just makes you a bag holder. --- A collapse in trading volume to the extreme is the real entry signal. This logic is sound. --- The shadow of 2.5 billion tokens unlocking—no wonder no one dares to push prices up.

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BetterLuckyThanSmart

· 01-18 08:44

Damn, I really can't understand the 0.13 level, it's such a brutal drop. Unlocking 25% of the supply is outrageous, who dares to take this risk? Wait, I'll still stay on the sidelines and watch, don't blindly buy the dip. Wait until the sentiment is completely dead before considering, entering now is just courting death. Honestly, the story behind this project can't even be told properly anymore, how can they pump the price?

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