Recently, a crypto platform has become incredibly popular, almost rivaling traditional betting platforms in popularity. Basically, the logic behind this thing is similar to traditional betting—betting on whether a certain event will happen or not—but it has wrapped itself in blockchain technology, pushing its valuation up to $9 billion. As for how it became so popular, the 2024 US election was the turning point that made its reputation known, and since then, it has become a "reference" for many professionals.

People involved in policy and finance circles have mostly heard of it, and some even regard it as a career path. Usually, the trending event trading rankings we see list this platform as one of the main trading venues. Currently, the hottest bets on this platform are predictions about the outcomes of certain Middle Eastern geopolitical events. A few days ago, a leader of a country made a statement about possibly taking tough measures, which immediately sparked a new wave of trading on the platform.

**What exactly is this platform?**

It is a decentralized prediction market platform founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, built on the Polygon blockchain. Simply put, it allows users worldwide to bet with cryptocurrencies (mainly stablecoins like USDC) on the outcomes of real-world events, forming a market-based probability trading system. It now also supports fiat and credit card deposits, lowering the entry barrier.

**Why has this platform become so popular?**

First, thanks to its underlying technological advantages. Its blockchain-based anonymous trading mechanism allows users to participate without real-name verification or linking bank accounts, enabling global participation. The low-cost features of the Polygon chain support high-frequency small trades, which is especially friendly to ordinary retail investors—you can repeatedly test with just a few dollars instead of investing large sums at once.

But the most critical factor is its prediction accuracy. From 2020 to 2024, for major events like the US elections, the UK Prime Minister change, and the Silicon Valley Bank incident, this platform’s market consensus has often been more accurate than traditional media and public opinion, sometimes even providing trend predictions weeks in advance. These successful cases have pushed it from a niche crypto circle into mainstream awareness, becoming a "decision-making reference tool" for many institutional investors.

**Can retail investors really make money from information advantage?**

Theoretically, the logic of making money in prediction markets is clear—if you have more comprehensive and accurate information than the market average, you can profit from trading. But in practice, it’s extremely difficult for ordinary users to make money this way.

The reason is simple: market participants are not fools. Institutional investors, information brokers, and professional analysts are active on this platform, and they have access to much richer information channels and faster response times than retail investors. The "information gap" you discover may have already been priced in by others. Plus, although liquidity on these platforms is improving, it still lags behind centralized exchanges, and large trades can suffer from slippage that erodes your profits.

More painfully, prediction markets are essentially zero-sum games—your gains come at the expense of others’ losses. In such an environment, big players can leverage their capital advantage to push odds lower, making it very difficult for retail investors to earn desirable returns even if they make correct judgments. As a result, most retail investors end up losing money, and the real winners are always those with the most complete information and the strongest capital backing.