#比特币储备战略 Seeing Fidelity and Grayscale both sending signals, I have to admit: this time, the push for Bitcoin reserve strategy indeed feels more like it has "official endorsement" than ever before.

But there's a pitfall I've fallen into that I want to warn everyone about—national-level reserve demand and retail FOMO are two different things. Fidelity's vice president made it very clear that the key lies in the "scale of incremental demand," and whether these institutions will collectively flee when the bear market arrives. We've seen too many instances where, after institutions make "market rescue" comments, they turn around and dump.

The prediction of a new all-time high in the first half of 2026 sounds tempting, but I'm more focused on a detail that's easy to overlook: has the four-year cycle really disappeared? Zach Pandl candidly states that the fear and greed driving the cycle are still present. What does this mean? Even if Bitcoin hits new highs, the pullback could be much larger than expected.

Countries like Pakistan and El Salvador are indeed changing the game, but don't be fooled by this macro narrative. Those who last the longest are never the ones who bet on the big direction correctly, but those who secure profits at the high points and avoid being chased at the lows.

I agree with the logic of holding Bitcoin long-term, but the prerequisite is having a clear take-profit and stop-loss plan. No matter how good the story sounds, it can't change the market's ruthlessness.