2026-01-18 09:21:58

The market's expectations for Bitcoin's future trend are quite interesting recently. According to forecast data, there is a 43% chance that the price will reach $100,000 in January, indicating that many people are still bullish. However, when looking at higher price levels, the probability of reaching $105,000 drops to 15%, reflecting increasing resistance as the price goes higher.

On the downside, the probability of falling to $85,000 is also 15%, and the chance of dropping below $80,000 is 5%. Overall, market opinions on Bitcoin remain somewhat divided—there are optimistic bullish voices as well as cautious defensive attitudes. Short-term volatility is inevitable during this period, and investors should respond according to their own risk tolerance.

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TheShibaWhisperer

· 12h ago

43% bullish? What does this data indicate? Still, it depends on the subsequent actions. Nice words don't mean anything. --- 105,000 feels like a risky position; resistance is right here. --- A divergent market—that's the norm. Don't be scared by a one-sided trend. --- Instead of obsessing over probabilities, think carefully about how much you could lose. --- Between 85,000 and 100,000, it's shaky. Who can predict accurately? --- Short-term volatility? I'm afraid it might be a long-term sideways movement, haha. --- A 15% chance to rise to 105,000, so let's just be honest and keep some cash on hand.

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BuyTheTop

· 12h ago

43% looking at 100,000 is a bit vague, how many truly dare to go all-in? --- 10.5w with a 15% chance is purely gambling. I prefer to stick to the 8w support line and sleep peacefully. --- It's just differentiation, anyway I've been numb for a long time, used to the drops. --- Honestly, no one knows what will happen next, everyone is guessing. --- The probability of 8.5w seems underestimated; this wave of decline is under a lot of pressure. --- I just want to ask, does anyone really make decisions based on this probability, or do they all rely on gut feeling and YOLO in the end? --- Instead of looking at these data, it's better to watch the movements of big players; there's too much noise.

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IronHeadMiner

· 12h ago

A 43% probability is indeed not low, but the more I look at this data, the more it seems to be saying "Everyone's uncertain" haha --- The 15% chance of 105,000 is indeed a letdown, feels like the main players just don't want us to be comfortable --- Swinging back and forth between 85,000 and 100,000, and still wondering how much longer we have to wait --- Risk tolerance is a joke, it all depends on how much we can afford to lose --- Such severe divergence indicates that no one can predict the next move; reviewing past data is more satisfying than watching real-time updates --- A drop below 80,000 by 5% would be ridiculous, and then it'll be another "black swan" excuse --- The market is playing psychological games; probabilities are meaningless to retail investors

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CodeSmellHunter

· 12h ago

43% bullish but once it goes up, no one is left. That's the market, indicating that the top pressure is really holding tight.

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