2026-01-18 09:26:00

Interestingly, the recent rally of Bitcoin has sparked a lot of predictions. On a certain prediction platform, investors are closely watching the trend of BTC. Data shows that 43% of people are optimistic about Bitcoin reaching $100,000 within January — this proportion is quite significant. What about the more aggressive bulls? They are betting on it reaching $105,000, with an estimated probability of about 15%. The bears are also betting, with 15% believing it will fall to $85,000, and 5% even expecting it to drop below $80,000. Honestly, this probability distribution reflects that there are still many disagreements in the market. Some are confidently bullish, while others remain cautious at high levels. The overall situation can be described as a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, each with their own logic.

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DaoTherapy

· 14h ago

43% looking at 100,000? I think this is a typical median thinking, everyone is betting on the same number. --- 10.5万 only has a 15% chance. How are these aggressive bulls thinking? They really dare. --- Disagreement is normal in the market. If everyone had the same voice, I would be more worried. --- Shorts only see below 8万 with a 5% chance? It feels like the bearish sentiment isn't that strong anymore. --- Basically, it's a casino mentality, each side betting on their own numbers. --- The 43% figure is a bit inflated; it’s definitely being influenced by some big V (influencer). --- Bull and bear intertwined sounds nice, but actually it just means no one is sure. --- I just want to know how accurate these predictions are; it feels like they’re just guessing blindly. --- The psychological level of 10万 is too obvious, easy to be smashed. --- Between 8.5万 and 10万, I think it’s most likely just wobbling around there.

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ProposalManiac

· 14h ago

43% looking at 100,000? It indicates that the market consensus has not truly formed yet, and that's the problem.

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LightningHarvester

· 14h ago

43% consensus can't be broken, but we're still far from a limit down --- The group at 105,000 has become too confident after this wave of market movement --- Hey, don't laugh at the short position at 85,000; this level indeed carries high risk --- Such big disagreements indicate that no one really understands the market --- Both bulls and bears have their logic? Fine, I only trust the K-line --- If 43% consensus can't be broken, we're still far from a limit down --- A 15% chance for aggressive bulls to push to 105,000, that's a bit of a dream --- Everyone has their own logic; frankly, they're all just gambling --- Looking at this probability distribution, we should wait and see

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VitalikFanboy42

· 14h ago

100,000? Dream on. I’m shorting 85,000; going short is the rational choice.

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CountdownToBroke

· 14h ago

$100,000 is such a competitive level, both bulls and bears are betting... --- 43% just to lock in $100,000? I think that's a bit overly optimistic. --- Bears drop from 15% to 8.5%, this data looks very realistic. --- Everyone has their own logic, honestly, no one really knows. --- I just want to know if the funds of the 43% are more than the 15% bears. --- With such a uniform probability distribution, it actually makes people feel uneasy. --- I admire the courage of the aggressive bulls to push to 105,000. --- It seems that the data from prediction platforms is a mirror of investor psychology. --- Market conditions with a 5:5 bull and bear split are the hardest to trade, nobody can make money.

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