Ethereum is oversold #欧美关税风波冲击市场 , with a technical rebound followed by continued consolidation.

After effectively breaking below the key support levels at 3300-3320, the price entered a low-volume consolidation around 3200. The current structure can be defined as “initial weak balance after a breakdown,” aimed at digesting short-term panic selling and preparing for the next phase of price movement through chip exchange.

Core logic for bulls and bears:

1. Bearish trend dominance (structural fact):
· Basis: The price volume-dropped below the daily support platform at 3300-3320, which had been maintained for several weeks. This area has now shifted from support to strong resistance. All MA20-MA100 moving averages form a clear bearish alignment in the 3266-3301 range, exerting downward pressure.
· Objective: Keep the price below the resistance platform, pushing the market toward the next major support zone at 3050-3100. The current consolidation is viewed as a continuation of the downtrend.
2. Bullish resistance logic (oversold correction):
· Basis: RSI (30.7) enters oversold territory, and the price is far from the main moving averages, indicating a need for technical correction. MA5 and MA10 are highly converged around 3207, showing short-term downward momentum is easing.
· Objective: Organize an effective rebound, which requires at least reclaiming MA20 (3266) to alleviate extreme weakness and attempt to challenge the 3300 resistance zone, thereby disrupting the downtrend. Currently, the momentum is only stagnating, not reversing.

Key observation framework and game nodes:

· Observation zones:
· Weak balance zone: 3150 - 3230. Price fluctuations within this range are a natural pause after a breakdown and do not change the trend direction.
· Bullish rebound validation zone: 3266 (MA20) - 3300 (breakout point). Price entering this area allows discussion of rebound strength. Surpassing 3300 is the first sign of structural recovery.
· Bearish trend continuation zone: Effective break below 3150 will confirm the end of consolidation and open the way toward 3050-3100.
· Momentum observation: MACD green bars are converging, indicating short-term selling pressure is weakening, but both lines are deep below zero, so the trend momentum remains. Shrinking volume is characteristic of the current balance state; subsequent volume expansion will determine the breakout direction.

Conclusion: The market is in a technical pause within a downtrend. Caution is advised against overly optimistic small rebounds. Until the price reclaims 3300, the structure remains bearish.