MSCI Withdraws Bitcoin Company Exclusion Threat: Two Years of Negotiation Truce until 2026

The decision by index provider Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) to postpone any removal of companies with significant cryptocurrency reserves until the 2026 review represents a crucial turning point for global financial markets. Confirmed in early 2025, this strategic choice maintains the status quo for companies like MicroStrategy and alleviates fears of a massive forced liquidation of digital assets.

The Repercussions: Meaning and Potential Impact in the Billions

The significant implications of an immediate exclusion would have deeply destabilized the market. Industry analysts predicted that such a move could trigger up to $15 billion in concentrated selling pressure, equivalent to about 22 trillion South Korean won. This figure highlights the scale of capital tied to corporate strategies centered around cryptocurrencies.

The mechanism would have been relentless: passive funds tracking MSCI indices would be forced to sell their holdings. This liquidation would generate three simultaneous disturbance orders:

• ETF and Mutual Funds Effect: Billions of assets under management (AUM) would face forced sales from their positions.
• Price Distortion: The stock prices of innovative companies like MicroStrategy would disconnect from their corporate fundamentals.
• Crypto Bearish Pressure: Sales of corporate Bitcoin reserves would exert downward pressure on underlying cryptocurrency markets.

Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, reassured that MicroStrategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) will not be subject to immediate exclusion.

Why MSCI Chose Strategic Waiting

The formal market consultation launched in October 2024 proposed removing from global indices companies whose balance sheets are dominated by crypto assets. However, the consultation process revealed widespread resistance among asset managers and listed companies. Many argued that an immediate exclusion would be premature and that corporate strategies involving Bitcoin represent a legitimate approach to treasury management.

Financial experts identify three concrete reasons for this pause until 2026:

Accounting Uncertainty: The treatment of digital assets remains ambiguous under U.S. GAAP and IFRS standards. A more precise definition will require further work by auditors.

Persistent Regulatory Gap: Guidelines from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and other agencies are still evolving. Regulatory clarity needs more time to crystallize.

Incomplete Performance Cycles: Companies with large crypto reserves need to be observed over multiple complete market cycles before reliable conclusions can be drawn.

MSCI has therefore opted for a cautious “wait and see” approach, prioritizing index stability and predictability for investors.

MicroStrategy: A Case Study of a Revolutionary Strategy

Led by executive chairman Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy anticipated this trend and transformed its business model based on Bitcoin accumulation. The company’s market valuation today is closely correlated with Bitcoin’s price movements. Its inclusion in prominent indices like the MSCI USA Index provides access to a broad passive capital base.

An exclusion would have cut off this access and potentially increased the company’s cost of capital. The postponement until 2026 allows MicroStrategy and similar competitors to continue without the looming threat of removal from indices.

The Timeline Leading to This Decision

Precedents for Other Index Providers

MSCI’s decision sets a benchmark for other providers like S&P Dow Jones Indices and FTSE Russell. Their policies will now be scrutinized in light of MSCI’s cautious stance. The next two years will serve as a vital testing ground for the global financial community.

What to Expect Until 2026

During this observation period, MSCI will gather further data on crypto asset volatility, corporate position liquidity, and correlation effects within portfolios. Accounting standards will further stabilize. Regulatory guidance will become more defined. Companies will refine their treasury strategies.

The 2026 review will serve as a landmark event that will define the treatment of innovative assets in global indices for years to come.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1: What decision has MSCI made regarding companies with crypto reserves?
MSCI has postponed any potential exclusion of companies with significant cryptocurrency holdings until the next major review in 2026, maintaining the current index composition.

Q2: Why did analysts fear a $15 billion sell-off?
If MSCI had excluded these companies, passive funds would have had to sell their holdings, generating up to $15 billion in coordinated selling pressure on underlying stocks and crypto assets.

Q3: What are the significant implications for MicroStrategy?
MicroStrategy will remain in MSCI indices at least until 2026, ensuring stability for shareholders and continued access to index fund capital.

Q4: How will MSCI utilize the waiting period until 2026?
MSCI will collect data on volatility, liquidity, and market correlation, monitoring the evolution of accounting standards and regulatory guidance.

Q5: Does the postponement mean permanent exclusion will never happen?
No, the postponement is not definitive. The 2026 review will reassess the issue based on market conditions, regulatory developments, and corporate performance available at that time.