## EUR/USD Under Pressure: Analysts Watch 100-Day Moving Average for Possible Further Declines

### Geopolitical Tensions Amplify Euro Weakness

The EUR/USD pair continues to face significant selling pressure, reaching lows of the past month around 1.1670 during Monday's Asian session. Increasing geopolitical uncertainties have triggered a flight to the safety of the US Dollar, pushing it to levels not seen since early October and consequently weighing on the euro-dollar exchange rate. The decline follows a second consecutive day of selling pressure, moving the pair away from the quarterly high of 1.1800 reached on December 24.

### The Role of the 100-Day Moving Average as a Crucial Pivot

Market participants are closely monitoring the behavior of the 100-day simple moving average, positioned around 1.1666, as a key level for short-term prospects. A decisive break below this reference point could trigger a more extended downward move. Conversely, holding above this threshold would limit downside risks and suggest a consolidation phase. The 100-day moving average, gradually sloping upward, remains strategic in defining the overall technical outlook of the pair.

### Technical Indicators Confirm Relative Weakness

The daily chart analysis reveals predominantly negative signals. The MACD has crossed below the Signal line and remains in negative territory, while the widening histogram indicates increasing selling momentum. The RSI, at 44, is significantly below the neutral level of 50, highlighting a retreat in bullish strength and confirming the bearish tone of the pair.

### Balance Between Monetary and Geopolitical Factors

Despite prevailing downward pressure, some elements could contain the decline. The accommodative stance expected from the Federal Reserve might limit further appreciation of the US dollar. At the same time, the market is consolidating the idea that the European Central Bank has concluded its tightening cycle, providing a theoretical support for the euro's value. However, these factors are currently insufficient to counteract the safe-haven demand for the USD.

### Technical Scenario and Outlook

To reverse the negative momentum, EUR/USD would need a daily close above the 100-day moving average, accompanied by a recovery of the RSI above the 50 threshold and a MACD move above its Signal line. As long as the pair remains under pressure, any rebound attempts could face resistance near the 100-day moving average. Maintaining the pair below this level would signal that sellers are maintaining control of the dynamics.