Polymarket is banned in Portugal and Hungary amid growing resistance to prediction markets

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Polymarket is Banned in Portugal and Hungary Amid Growing Resistance to Prediction Markets Original Link: https://portaldobitcoin.uol.com.br/polymarket-e-banido-em-portugal-e-hungria-com-crescente-resistencia-aos-mercados-de-previsoes/ Polymarket began 2026 facing a new wave of regulatory actions from jurisdictions in Europe and the US, even as it tries to return to the American market.

On Friday, both Hungary’s Regulated Activities Supervisory Authority and Portugal’s Gaming Regulatory Authority issued bans against the predictive market, accusing it of illegal gambling activities.

“The site is not authorized to offer bets in Portugal, and according to national legislation, betting on events or political happenings, whether domestic or international, is not permitted,” Portuguese regulators told local broadcaster Rádio Renascença.

On the same day, the Nevada Gaming Control Board in the US filed a civil action against Polymarket, requesting the court “a declaration and an injunction to prevent Polymarket from offering unlicensed bets.” Their actions follow a similar case earlier this month in Tennessee, when the state’s sports betting regulator ordered Polymarket, Kalshi, and Crypto.com to shut down their sports betting markets and refund bets.

Prediction markets have exploded in popularity over the past two years, especially ahead of the 2024 US presidential election. These markets, including major players Polymarket and its main competitor Kalshi, record combined volumes of over US$13.5 billion monthly and process more than 43 million transactions, according to a November 2025 report by Dune and Keyrock.

Controversy around them centers on the claim by prediction markets that they are not gambling platforms. In April, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said prediction markets offer “event contracts,” not bets.

“I really don’t know what this has to do with gambling. If we’re talking about gambling, then I think we’re basically calling the entire financial market a gamble,” he said at the time, describing the market as “an open financial market” where people trade among themselves rather than betting against a bookmaker.

But regulators disagree.

To make matters worse, in many places, betting on the outcome of political events is illegal — including in Portugal and also in Taiwan, where Polymarket users were investigated for betting on the outcome of recent presidential elections.

Concerns have also arisen about the extent of insider information use in prediction markets. Earlier this month, a Polymarket user profited more than US$436,000 after correctly betting that former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be ousted before January 31. The bet was placed hours before US forces removed him from power, leading to accusations that the user had prior knowledge of what was going to happen.

This prompted a Democratic lawmaker to draft a bill banning federal employees from using prediction markets when they possess relevant insider information.

That said, at the federal level, there has been a shift in attitude toward prediction markets. In November, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approved Polymarket’s return to the US market. The company had previously been banned and fined US$1.4 million in 2022 for regulatory compliance failures.

Keyrock CEO said prediction markets are a fascinating case study for blockchain’s core promise: transforming collective intelligence into tradable and verifiable data.

“But they also show us how fragile this can be when incentives or visibility are misaligned,” he said. “There’s an evident need for clearer boundaries between participation, governance, and influence. Markets built on systems without trust still need reliable structures to provide meaningful information beyond speculation.”

“The next phase will depend on who can conceive markets that preserve open access, incorporating transparency and compliance from the outset,” he added. “That’s how I see prediction markets evolving from entertainment to reliable, institutional-level signals.”

It’s uncertain whether Polymarket will resume operations in jurisdictions like Portugal and Hungary. The ban in Hungary, for example, is temporary. According to legal experts, in theory, several outcomes remain possible, including lifting the temporary block. However, enforcement trends suggest the authority may ultimately adopt a firmer stance.

“Other regulatory measures may be applied, depending on the final assessment of the competent authority regarding Polymarket’s activities,” experts said. “The possibility of the ban being lifted cannot be completely ruled out at this stage.”