Whenever Bitcoin pulls back now, some people reflexively shout, “Is it back to 2022 again?” but this is more like looking at the chart without considering the times.

That year was characterized by high inflation and aggressive rate hikes, squeezing the market layer by layer; whereas the current environment features cooling inflation, rising expectations of rate cuts, and money gradually flowing back. The trend may look similar, but the script has long changed. Using the old bear market to frame the current situation is inherently unreliable.
From a macro perspective, 2022 was a phase of rapid liquidity contraction and rising risk-free rates, with the core goal of capital being risk reduction and capital preservation; now, with US CPI cooling and rates declining, the central bank’s stance is gradually shifting from tightening to easing, and capital allocation logic is shifting from defense to risk appetite.
To truly return to the 2022 bear market, inflation would need to rise again, the central bank would need to step on the gas and hike rates, and prices would need to stay below $80,850 for a long time. But none of these conditions are in place now. Using the shadow of the old bear market to scare the current market is actually a misapplication of the script.