#黄金白银再创新高 Gold and silver both hit new all-time highs. Is "digital gold" Bitcoin really falling behind?

As of now, spot gold and silver have both reached record highs. In contrast, Bitcoin has been oscillating around $90,000.
This divergence highlights a structural shift in the global market: in uncertain environments, traditional safe-haven assets thrive, while Bitcoin is hampered by liquidity constraints and risk aversion.
Deep Drivers Behind the Continued New Highs of Gold and Silver
By January 2025, gold prices surged to $2,600, then continued to rise strongly, with nearly 100% gains.
Silver, known as the "volatility partner of gold," performed even better. Starting April 2025, silver prices reached $30, setting new highs amid ongoing fluctuations. To date, its gains have exceeded 300%.
This rally is driven by the interplay of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.
1. Central bank gold purchases are a key driver. The People's Bank of China added 27 tons of gold reserves in 2025. The Reserve Bank of India increased its gold holdings from 10% to 16%, benefiting from rising prices and diversified allocations away from US Treasuries. Against the backdrop of US debt exceeding $36 trillion, this de-dollarization trend positions gold as a hedge against currency depreciation.
2. Geopolitical tensions boost demand. US tariffs threats on Greenland and interventions in Iran triggered safe-haven capital inflows, pushing gold prices above $4,800 to $5,000.
3. Weakening US dollar—down 6% in the 2025 Wall Street Journal Dollar Index—further supports prices, making dollar-denominated metals more attractive to overseas buyers.
4. The collapse of the Federal Reserve's independence and the credit crisis are also severe. The most immediate catalyst is a "structural earthquake" in Washington. As criminal investigations into Fed Chair Powell begin, the Fed's independence as the world's last monetary safeguard faces unprecedented doubts. When investors realize the central bank may become a tool of political games, the long-term credibility of the dollar is undermined.
Although gold prices are approaching the $5,000 mark, global ETF holdings and central bank reserves continue to grow net. This indicates a psychological paradigm shift: people are no longer worried about prices being too high but about holding fiat currency being "too cheap."
For silver, industrial demand provides additional upward momentum. Since 2021, structural supply shortages have persisted, with mine output flat, while demand for solar panels, electronics, and AI infrastructure has surged. Starting January 1, 2026, China will implement export restrictions, exacerbating silver shortages. Analysts estimate annual shortages of 200-300 million ounces, with industrial consumption accounting for 50% of supply. In the mid-to-late stage of a precious metals bull market, silver, due to its smaller market size and greater elasticity, often experiences extremely fierce catch-up rallies.
The current gold-silver ratio is returning to historical averages or even lower levels.
Renowned economist Hong Hao previously analyzed that as long as expectations of improved global liquidity remain, the upward cycle of silver will not end. Although its volatility will far surpass gold, its "industrial necessity" attribute beyond "digital gold" will provide solid support.

Behind Bitcoin's Slump
Bitcoin's trajectory contrasts sharply. After reaching a peak of $126,000 in 2025, it has been consolidating around $90,000. Glassnode stated that Bitcoin has lost 0.75 supply cost quantile and has failed to recover. Currently, spot trading prices are below the cost basis of 75% of the supply, indicating increasing distribution pressure. Risk levels have risen; unless it can regain this level, the market will be dominated by a downward trend.
Liquidity contraction is the main culprit. Since 2022, the Fed has implemented quantitative tightening (QT), withdrawing $1.5 trillion in reserves, suppressing speculative inflows into risk assets like Bitcoin. The $19 billion leverage washout in October exacerbated this issue, leading to chain liquidations. While geopolitical risks boosted gold, they also triggered risk-avoidance sentiment in the crypto space.
From a cyclical perspective, although BTC has not outperformed gold and silver since last year, in absolute return multiples, BTC rose from $15,000 to a peak of $126,000, an increase of over 800%, still showing impressive performance.
Wintermute stated that Bitcoin seems to be entering an upward channel after breaking out of the narrow 50-day trading range. The market landscape changed last week.
Since November, Bitcoin has broken through the range based on real fund flows (not leverage trading) for the first time. ETF demand has returned, the inflation environment is favorable, and cryptocurrencies are beginning to catch up with the overall rally of risk assets.
Monday's sharp decline, though intense, was a healthy correction. Rapid deleveraging prevented a vicious cycle, which is a positive sign.
The current issue is whether the tariff tensions are "bluff" or will evolve into substantive policies. The market leans toward the former. Since the beginning of the year, US stocks and the dollar have continued to rise, and interest rates have not been re-priced.
If Bitcoin can hold above $90,000 this week and ETF inflows persist, the breakout trend may continue; if subsequent selling pushes it below $90,000, the range since November will again become a resistance level.