#BTC fall to the ground, shocked! The big showdown of non-farm payrolls! Will there be big dump? How should retail investors position themselves?

When the house leaks, it rains overnight. On the morning of January 9th, during the fall of the market, major cryptocurrency media reported a piece of negative news, that is, 'The US Department of Justice approves the sale of the confiscated $6.5 billion Silk Road bitcoins on the dark web.' As soon as this news came out, Bitcoin fell, falling below $93,000 at one point. At the time of writing, the price has rebounded to around $93,500.
Minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released today further indicate that officials are generally willing to keep interest rates unchanged at the meeting scheduled for the end of this month. As a result, the market has adjusted its expectations for the future monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and risk assets have fallen under pressure.

Critical moment: Market game points appear!

This fall also brought the price of Bitcoin back to the lower edge of the consolidation range since the end of November last year. But Bitcoin is still expected to rebound from the low point in the short term, and may continue to oscillate and consolidate within the range until the pressure is digested, and then there will be a chance to hit a new high.

The US stock market is closed today, but the bond market is open, which seems to be the first time in history. And the non-farm payroll data will be released on Friday, and the fate of the market in the short term depends on this data.
Despite the current market conditions being very tough, we must believe that something big is on the way! The pullback is just a temporary breather, and Trump's inauguration on January 20th will bring optimism to the market. With this major positive news, the market is expected to usher in a new wave of upward momentum.
It is important to pay attention to the US non-farm payroll data that will be released on Friday, which will be a key catalyst for the bitcoin trend. If the data is not good and the unemployment rate rises, but employment still increases, it may be even better and may make the Fed consider cutting interest rates. The current fall may be a market reaction to expectations before the release of non-farm data.
Will there be big dump next?

I don't think so. The macroeconomic impact has temporarily dampened the rise of Bitcoin. It should have been a speculative opportunity, but two economic data released by the United States exceeded expectations, leading to a collective pullback in the US stock market and the crypto market. The non-farm payroll data this Friday may also exceed expectations, which will affect the market trend. This fall actually preemptively reflects these factors.

Currently, Bitcoin is in a state of neither rising nor falling, with overall weak trend. However, it is still supported at the $92,000 level, undergoing consolidation and oscillation to digest the pressure. In summary, it is expected to fluctuate between 92,800 and 100,500. The prices of altcoins are also affected, with many experiencing a significant fall.

How do you view the current situation of altcoins? What else can retail investors buy?

Since the proportion of Bitcoin's market value peaked at 60% and then fell, the daily trading volume of altcoins (excluding the top ten in market value) has long maintained a proportion of over 40%, always in a dominant position. The reason why the altcoin market is sluggish is that the daily trading volume has dropped from $300 billion to $150 billion, leading to a situation of scarcity of resources again. In the market situation of reduced volume game, funds mainly break through in two directions: one is to concentrate on trending coins such as SUI, AAVE, XRP, etc.; the other is to gather in hot topics such as AI Agent, DeSci, RWA, etc.

Since the market bottomed out on December 20th, AI Agent has undoubtedly become the hottest topic in the market. More than half of the top gainers are related to AI Agent. The two star projects of AI Agent, Ai16z and Virtual, have also become one of the most powerful tokens in terms of fundraising ability in December 2024 without any suspense. As funds have deeply entered this field, the market of AI Agent is likely to continue for several months. To achieve substantial excess returns, it is still necessary to closely follow the market trends.

Of course, chasing after Ai16z and Virtual here is clearly not the best choice for current participation in AI Agent. On the contrary, for the steady, well-adjusted second-tier projects such as ACT, GOAT, etc., it is easier to foster trading opportunities.

In the operation of altcoins, opportunities mainly depend on individuals' risk preferences and profit expectations.

For conservative investors, Ethereum, SOL, and platform tokens from top exchanges still have a high margin of safety, after all, their current valuations and growth potential are quite good. At the same time, the pullback of leading projects in most specific areas also provides good opportunities for accumulation, such as UNI, LINK, AAVE, SSV, etc. in the DeFi sector.

Finally, I would like to say that the overall trend is still not in a panic to cut meat. Silk Road sells coins, Trump's remarks, interest rate expectations, and all negative news are just ups and downs between 130,000 and 150,000. With long-term thinking investment, no one can cut you off! I firmly believe in one sentence: everything happens for my good. That's how we've come through these years. Don't panic.
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