2025-02-02 13:21:25

### Key Influencing Factors

#### **1. Macro Level**
- **Federal Reserve Policy**: Market expectations for a rate cut in September have cooled, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has strengthened, suppressing risk assets (including cryptocurrencies).
- **Geopolitical Risks**: The tense situation in the Middle East may divert funds from the cryptocurrency market if risk aversion intensifies.

#### **2. Internal Industry**
- **Ethereum ETF Progress**: The SEC has approved the 19b-4 filing for the spot Ethereum ETF, but the effectiveness of the S-1 registration statement needs to wait (expected to be weeks to months). The market may enter a short-term "positive cash-in" phase, and caution is needed against selling pressure.
- **Pectra Upgrade Expectation**: The upgrade plan at the end of 2024 (including EIP-7702 and other improvements) is a long-term benefit for staking and smart contract ecosystem.

#### **3. On-chain Data**
- **Position Distribution**: Whale addresses (holding amount > 10,000 ETH) increased their holdings by about 2.3% in the past week, indicating that large funds are accumulating on dips.
- **Exchange Flow**: ETH exchange balance drops to a 4-year low (approximately 12 million coins), reducing selling pressure. #金蛇衔财：喜迎新春，$50,000大奖派送中

ETH-2,96%

S-4,41%

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