At the end of June 2026, the global semiconductor capital markets experienced a dramatic surge in volatility. This collective restlessness in the markets was no accident. As AI transitions from the era of large language model training to the Agentic AI era—centered on inference—it is fundamentally reshaping the demand structure of the global memory market. HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is no longer just a DRAM subcategory; it has become a core strategic asset for AI infrastructure. At the end of May 2026, TrendForce sharply revised its global memory output forecast for 2026, raising it from $551.6 billion to $889.3 billion, with projections for 2027 climbing even higher to $1.28 trillion.
This article analyzes the competitive landscape of the AI Memory market by examining the latest financial results, market share shifts, and technical roadmaps of the top three industry players. We also explore how investors can position themselves in this structural market cycle, leveraging Gate’s newly launched global stock trading service.
Structural Expansion of the AI Memory Market: Data-Driven Growth Dynamics
Before diving into the competitive dynamics among the "big three," it’s essential to clarify the core drivers behind this round of growth.
The fundamental difference between Agentic AI and the previous generation of AI applications lies in the shift in inference patterns. Traditional chatbot inference requests are one-off computations, while Agentic AI inference requests execute in continuous loops. As context windows expand, KV cache capacity requirements rise in tandem, directly fueling rapid growth in both HBM and DRAM demand.
TrendForce offers the most direct quantitative reference: Global DRAM output is projected to reach $618.7 billion in 2026, a staggering 303% year-over-year increase, and to grow further to $903.3 billion in 2027, up another 46%. The NAND Flash market is also benefiting from the AI infrastructure investment wave—capital expenditures among the world’s nine largest cloud service providers are expected to rise 79% year-over-year in 2026, with capital intensity climbing to 34%. TrendForce forecasts global NAND Flash output to hit $270.6 billion in 2026, up 280.7% year-over-year.
Data from Counterpoint Research further validates this trend: In Q1 2026, global DRAM sales rose 80% quarter-over-quarter and 260% year-over-year. Such growth rates are extremely rare in semiconductor industry history.
Against this macro backdrop, the leading three manufacturers are showing highly divergent performance and competitive dynamics.
Performance Overview of the Big Three: Outperformance and Divergence
Micron: Explosive Growth and Ongoing Revaluation
Micron’s fiscal Q3 2026 (ending May 28, 2026) earnings report has been a recent market highlight. The company posted revenue of $41.46 billion for the quarter, up 345.72% year-over-year and 73.75% quarter-over-quarter. Net profit reached $33.33 billion, surging 1,398.11% year-over-year and 106.26% quarter-over-quarter. Gross margin stood at 84.56%, up 10.15 percentage points from the previous quarter.
By business segment, data center operations were the primary growth engine. HBM orders remained robust, with sales in this segment jumping from $1.53 billion a year ago to $11.5 billion. Cloud memory revenue soared over 300% to $13.77 billion. The company also issued Q4 2026 guidance, projecting revenue between $49 billion and $51 billion.
The capital markets responded enthusiastically. Following the earnings release, Micron’s market cap surged by about $100 billion in a single day, reaching $1.3 trillion. The market is pricing in a full-scale revaluation in response to this level of growth.
SK hynix: The HBM Profit Lever
SK hynix holds the largest HBM market share among the top three. In Q1 2026, the company reported revenue of KRW 52.58 trillion and operating profit of KRW 37.61 trillion, with an operating margin of 72%—both all-time quarterly records.
Expectations rose even higher in Q2. Analysts generally forecast SK hynix’s Q2 operating profit to fall between KRW 60 trillion and KRW 70 trillion, with some brokers such as Kiwoom Securities raising their estimates to KRW 70 trillion. DRAM and NAND contract prices are projected to rise another 50% to 70% quarter-over-quarter.
Management noted that the structural memory shortage driven by AI infrastructure will last at least three years. This view aligns with TrendForce’s forecast that the supply gap will persist through 2028.
SK hynix’s stock performance has been equally impressive. Year-to-date, shares have climbed over 300%, and by the end of May, its market cap briefly topped $1 trillion, making it the second Asian chipmaker after Samsung Electronics to join the "trillion-dollar club."
Samsung Electronics: Scale Leader Facing Short-Term Adjustments
Samsung Electronics remains the scale leader in both DRAM and NAND markets. In Q1 2026, its DS (Device Solutions) division posted consolidated revenue of KRW 81.7 trillion and operating profit of KRW 53.7 trillion. Counterpoint data shows Samsung held a 38% share of the global DRAM market in Q1, ranking first.
However, short-term performance is under pressure for downward revision. On June 29, Kiwoom Securities cut its Q2 operating profit forecast for Samsung from KRW 100 trillion to KRW 89 trillion, with revenue expected at KRW 183 trillion. The downgrade is not due to a deterioration in semiconductor operations—in fact, DRAM and NAND prices have risen slightly more than expected—but rather to higher-than-anticipated bonus accruals.
Analysts point out that this adjustment is more about the timing of expense recognition than any fundamental weakness, so the impact on the stock price should be limited. Samsung leads the pack in HBM4 validation and is expected to begin mass production after completing Q2. In the second half of the year, momentum from HBM4 and enterprise SSD market share gains will coexist with concerns about rising market share for Chinese memory makers, potentially increasing stock volatility.
HBM Market Share Battle: From "Single Dominance" to "Tripartite Rivalry"
HBM is currently the highest-margin and fastest-growing segment in the AI Memory market, and it’s also the most fiercely contested battleground among the big three.
Q1 2026 Landscape: SK hynix Leads, Samsung and Micron Tied for Second
According to Counterpoint Research data released June 25, 2026, global HBM market share by revenue in Q1 2026 was: SK hynix 58%, Samsung Electronics 21%, and Micron 21%.
This marks a significant shift from the same period in 2025, when SK hynix held a commanding 69% share. The drop from 69% to 58% is not due to lost orders, but rather the rapid ramp-up in HBM capacity and shipments from Samsung and Micron—a natural progression as the market shifts from "single dominance" to a "tripartite rivalry."
Supply Side: 2026 Capacity Fully Sold Out
The core issue in the HBM market is that supply falls far short of demand. All three suppliers’ HBM capacity for 2026 has been fully booked by customers. SK hynix’s 2026 HBM output is essentially sold out, with the market firmly in "seller’s market" territory. Micron’s entire 2026 HBM supply has been sold under fixed-price contracts. Samsung plans to boost HBM capacity by 50% in 2026, targeting 250,000 wafers per month—by the end of 2025, Samsung’s monthly HBM capacity (170,000 wafers) had already surpassed SK hynix (160,000 wafers).
HBM4 Era: Samsung Leads in Validation, SK hynix Holds Share Advantage
TrendForce’s latest June 2026 report highlights significant divergence in HBM4 validation progress among the three major suppliers. Samsung leads HBM4 validation, with process upgrades resolving heat issues and improving efficiency. Although SK hynix requires resampling, its established partnership with NVIDIA is expected to help it maintain the largest shipment share. Micron, constrained by its technical architecture, is progressing more slowly in validation.
As the largest single buyer of HBM, NVIDIA’s procurement strategy directly sets the ceiling for each supplier’s market share. Due to ongoing memory capacity constraints, NVIDIA employs a multi-supplier strategy to ensure supply chain security. On the Vera Rubin platform, SK hynix is allocated about 60% to 70% of HBM4 supply, Samsung about 25% to 30%, and Micron the remainder.
Overall, TrendForce expects SK hynix to maintain around 50% HBM market share for all of 2026, with Samsung at 28% and Micron at 22%.
Investment Logic and Trading Pathways: How Gate Enables Participation in the Global AI Memory Rally
Crypto Market Mirrors the Trend: AI Narrative Spillover
As of June 30, 2026, Bitcoin was trading in a narrow range near $60,000, with daily quotes between $60,045 and $60,367. Ethereum remained around the $1,600 level. The total cryptocurrency market cap stood at roughly $2.09 trillion. Despite a continued pullback since June, the short-term bearish trend remains, but global regulatory frameworks are accelerating and institutional allocation demand continues to build.
The explosive growth in AI chip and memory demand is increasingly influencing the crypto asset space through multiple channels. From expanded capital expenditures in AI infrastructure to rising requirements for high-performance computing, energy, and network bandwidth, the interplay between the AI narrative and the crypto market is strengthening. As a multi-asset allocation platform bridging crypto assets and traditional finance, Gate offers users a unique gateway to participate in both domains.
Gate Stock Trading: Direct AI Memory Exposure Using USDT
On June 1, 2026, Gate officially launched live stock trading, becoming one of the first crypto exchanges to provide direct access to the US stock market within a crypto platform. Users can buy real stocks listed on the NYSE, NASDAQ, and other major US exchanges with just the liquidity in their Gate account—no currency conversion, cross-border transfers, or separate brokerage accounts required.
As of June 2026, Gate’s stock offering covers US, Hong Kong, and Korean equities, supporting over 10,000 US stocks and ETFs, 1,500+ Hong Kong stocks, and 1,000+ Korean stocks, for a total of more than 12,500 stocks and ETFs worldwide. For the AI Memory value chain, users can directly trade these key players on Gate:
- Micron Technology (MU): NASDAQ-listed; most recent quarterly revenue $41.46 billion; robust HBM order book
- SK hynix (000660.KS): Listed on Korea’s KOSPI; 58% HBM market share; Q2 profit forecast of KRW 60–70 trillion
- Samsung Electronics (005930.KS): KOSPI-listed; 38% global DRAM share; leads in HBM4 validation
- NVIDIA (NVDA): NASDAQ-listed; largest single HBM buyer; Rubin platform drives HBM demand
Gate’s stock trading offers three core advantages: ultra-low fractional share thresholds (as little as 0.01 shares), direct USDT settlement, and all trades executed by Alpaca, a US-licensed Broker-Dealer, with assets independently custodied via the DTC system.
Conclusion
The AI Memory market is in the early stages of structural expansion. TrendForce’s upward revision of global memory output to $889.3 billion for 2026 and $1.28 trillion for 2027 outlines a steep growth trajectory. In this cycle, SK hynix holds the current lead thanks to its HBM first-mover advantage and deep ties with NVIDIA. Samsung, leveraging its scale in DRAM and NAND and its progress in HBM4 validation, is well positioned to catch up. Micron, meanwhile, is capturing global investor attention with its explosive growth and ongoing revaluation.
Competition among the three is not a zero-sum game. With the overall market expanding at a 300% pace, each faces its own growth opportunities and challenges. For investors, the structural rally in AI Memory offers allocation opportunities spanning both crypto assets and traditional finance. Gate’s ability to facilitate direct USDT trading in over 12,500 global stocks provides the infrastructure needed for this allocation strategy.
On the risk front, several factors warrant attention: If AI capital expenditures fall short of expectations, demand-side corrections may follow. Rapid HBM capacity expansion could lead to oversupply, compressing pricing power and margins. Geopolitical factors could disrupt semiconductor supply chains in Korea and Taiwan. And after 2027, memory prices may face mean reversion pressure. These variables introduce uncertainties beyond the current optimism and should be carefully considered in investment decisions.
FAQ
Q1: What’s the key difference between HBM and traditional DRAM? Why does AI need HBM?
HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) uses 3D stacking technology to vertically integrate multiple DRAM chips, delivering much higher bandwidth and energy efficiency than traditional DRAM. Training and inference for large AI models require frequent, massive data exchanges between GPUs and memory, making traditional DRAM bandwidth a computing bottleneck. HBM’s high bandwidth makes it the standard memory for AI accelerators. TrendForce expects HBM capacity expansion to crowd out traditional DRAM wafer production, further strengthening supplier pricing power.
Q2: Among the three major manufacturers, who has the strongest competitive edge in HBM?
Currently, SK hynix leads with a 58% HBM market share, thanks to its long-term partnership with NVIDIA and extensive mass production experience. Samsung is ahead in HBM4 validation and boasts the world’s largest DRAM capacity base (38% market share). Micron’s revenue growth is the most remarkable (up 345.72% year-over-year), but its HBM validation progress is slower. Each has its strengths, and the competitive landscape remains dynamic.
Q3: How can I trade US and Korean stocks on Gate? Do I need a separate account?
Gate launched live stock trading on June 1, 2026. No separate brokerage account is needed—simply use the USDT in your Gate account to trade. The platform covers US, Hong Kong, and Korean markets, with over 12,500 stocks and ETFs available. Trades are executed by Alpaca, a US-licensed Broker-Dealer, with assets independently custodied via the DTC system.
Q4: How long is this upcycle in the memory market expected to last?
Institutional consensus is forming. SK hynix management expects the structural memory shortage driven by AI infrastructure to last at least three years. JPMorgan has raised its 2026–2028 HBM market size forecasts by 17% to 21%, projecting the supply-demand gap to persist through 2028. HSBC likens the current cycle to the semiconductor supercycle from 1990 to 1995. However, after 2027, the balance between capacity expansion and demand growth will be a key variable.
Q5: What are the main investment risks in the AI Memory sector?
Key risks include: AI capital spending falling short of expectations, directly impacting HBM demand; temporary oversupply if HBM capacity expands too quickly, eroding product premiums; memory price cycles potentially reverting to the mean after 2027; geopolitical risks affecting Korean semiconductor supply chains; and rising market share for Chinese memory makers (such as CXMT) in the low- and mid-end segments, which could marginally impact overall pricing structures.
