June 17, 2026 — The US software sector continues to experience the volatility that has defined its trajectory since the start of the year. As of June 16, ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW) closed at $101.33, down 2.71% for the day. Salesforce (NYSE: CRM) hit a new 52-week low of $160.50 during intraday trading, ultimately closing down roughly 1.7%. Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) finished at $208.60, up about 1.09% for the day. These three SaaS giants, once market darlings, are now facing their most severe valuation reset since the launch of ChatGPT—a reset ironically triggered by the very AI narrative they once championed.
From "AI Beneficiaries" to "AI Victims": A Complete Reversal
When generative AI first took off in 2023, software stocks were seen as the primary vehicles for AI adoption. ServiceNow’s AI Control Tower, Salesforce’s Einstein, and Adobe’s Firefly—all leaned into the AI story to drive up valuations. Yet by 2026, the market narrative has shifted in subtle but significant ways.
The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF plunged more than 24% in Q1 2026, marking its steepest quarterly decline since Q4 2008. Within just a few weeks, leaders like Salesforce, Adobe, and ServiceNow saw their share prices fall by 25% to 30%. The core concern: the rise of AI-native solutions is fundamentally challenging the traditional seat-based pricing model of SaaS.
Salesforce exemplifies this shift. Since the start of 2026, CRM has dropped more than 36%. The company is attempting to move from "per-user" pricing to charging based on work completed by AI agents—introducing the Agentic Work Units (AWU) metric and Flex Credits consumption model. In Q1, Salesforce delivered 3.8 billion AWUs, up 111% quarter-over-quarter. Annual recurring revenue (ARR) from Agentforce has surpassed $1.2 billion. Yet the market remains unconvinced—investors worry that moving from "seats" to "tasks" is an implicit admission that AI is reducing the number of human software users. The pains of this strategic transition have only reinforced the "AI is killing SaaS" narrative.
ServiceNow faces similar headwinds. In Q1 2026, subscription revenue rose 19% year-over-year to $3.67 billion, and the company raised its full-year subscription revenue guidance to $15.7–15.8 billion. The internal annual contract value target for its AI product, Now Assist, was raised from $1 billion to $1.5 billion. Yet the stock has fallen 48.18% over the past 52 weeks. In its Q1 letter to investors, the Columbia Global Technology Growth Fund bluntly stated that ServiceNow "has become a textbook victim of SaaS business model repricing in the face of increasingly widespread AI-native solutions."
Adobe: Firefly’s ARR and the Valuation Disconnect
Adobe’s situation may be the most dramatic. In Q2 of fiscal 2026, revenue grew 11% year-over-year at constant currency to $6.62 billion, beating market expectations by 3%. Non-GAAP net profit also rose 11% to $2.4 billion. Quarterly ARR from AI-first products more than tripled year-over-year, surpassing $500 million, with Firefly’s quarterly ARR nearing $300 million—a roughly 50% increase from the previous quarter. Paid users of Acrobat AI Assistant grew by over 150% year-over-year.
Yet these numbers haven’t stopped the stock’s downward slide. Adobe currently trades at a P/E of about 46.69, but its trailing earnings multiple is just 11.7—far below the software sector median of roughly 80. Its PEG ratio is about 0.85. By traditional valuation metrics, Adobe is now in deep value territory.
Market disagreement centers on two main issues: First, the growth in usage of AI features like Firefly has yet to fully translate into sustainable ARR. Second, pressure from AI-native competitors like Canva and free AI tools from Google is eroding Adobe’s pricing power. In mid-June, CMB International cut Adobe’s price target from $350 to $300, reflecting a 12x FY2026 P/E (down from 15x), citing "increased competition from AI vendors and management changes." However, the firm also raised its revenue forecasts for FY2026–2028 by 2%–4%, with adjusted EPS targets of $24.4, $27.9, and $32, respectively—a notable signal that institutional views on Adobe’s fundamentals are diverging from their views on valuation.
J.P. Morgan likewise lowered its price target from $420 to $340 but maintained an "Overweight" rating. Mizuho, meanwhile, argues that with an enterprise value to free cash flow ratio of about 7x for calendar 2027, Adobe’s valuation is attractive.
Michael Burry’s Contrarian Bet: Fear vs. Fundamentals
Amid widespread market pessimism, the moves of Michael Burry—the real-life inspiration for "The Big Short"—stand out. In April 2026, Burry confirmed to his Substack followers that he was maintaining his position in Adobe as part of a broader strategy to bet on "software stocks struggling in the AI era."
Burry’s investment thesis is clear: If software stocks are falling due to declining sales, customer churn, or competitive margin erosion, stay away. But if the drop is driven by technical pressures and fear-based selling, that’s a different story. He believes that investors willing to make an early entry into these names are buying quality companies "at prices driven more by fear than by fundamentals."
As of May 2026, Adobe was Burry’s second-largest holding. He subsequently increased his positions in Adobe, Alibaba, and PayPal, citing "deep value, buybacks, and AI-driven mispricing." Burry even called Adobe a "fat pitch"—a can’t-miss opportunity.
This contrarian logic is backed by the data. Adobe is now trading near the bottom of its 52-week range ($196.90 to $399.67). The stock has pulled back nearly 48% from its 52-week high, yet the company’s core product suite, creative software market share, and Firefly’s ARR growth trajectory remain intact. Burry’s view is that the current price decline is due to a "narrative shift," not "fundamental deterioration"—the essence of deep value investing.
Gate’s Stock Trading Gateway: When Crypto Platforms Become Portals for Traditional Asset Allocation
For investors watching the revaluation of these software stocks, a practical question arises: How can you efficiently trade these names? Traditional cross-border securities trading involves currency exchange, international wire transfers, and opening brokerage accounts—a process that’s cumbersome and time-consuming. On June 1, 2026, Gate officially launched real stock trading, becoming one of the first crypto platforms to offer direct access to the US stock market.
As of June 2026, Gate TradFi has listed over 10,000 real stocks and ETFs, covering the NYSE, Nasdaq, NYSE Arca, NYSE American, and BATS—five major exchanges. Users can trade directly using USDT liquidity in their Gate accounts, with no need for currency conversion, cross-border transfers, or opening additional brokerage accounts.
This model offers three core advantages:
Extremely low fractional share minimums. You can start investing in US stocks with as little as 0.01 shares—just $1. For investors looking to diversify across ServiceNow, Salesforce, Adobe, and other software stocks, fractional shares dramatically lower the capital barrier.
Direct USDT settlement. Say goodbye to the complex process of "selling crypto → withdrawing fiat → wiring internationally → funding a broker." Crypto assets and US equities can be managed within a single account system, greatly improving capital efficiency.
Compliance and asset protection. All stock trades are executed by Alpaca, a licensed US broker-dealer with clearing authority, backed by real assets held in independent custody via the DTC system.
In addition, Gate launched its "Direct-to-IPO" service in June 2026, allowing users to submit subscription requests before a company’s official IPO and quickly receive spot shares after listing. The first project is SpaceX, with USDT payment supported. This feature further completes Gate’s end-to-end investment product suite, from pre-IPO allocation to secondary market trading.
On June 11, 2026, Gate expanded into Hong Kong stock trading, allowing users to access over 1,500 Hong Kong-listed stocks—including Tencent, Xiaomi, Meituan, and HSBC—directly through the Gate app. This means investors can now allocate across US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and crypto assets on a single platform.
A Framework for Valuation Reset
Returning to the value re-rating of these three software stocks, the main market debates can be summarized as follows:
AI’s impact on the SaaS business model is real. Seat-based pricing assumes "every knowledge worker needs a software seat." If AI agents can replace some human tasks, the number of seats a company needs may decline. Salesforce’s proactive shift from "per seat" to "per task" pricing is itself confirmation of this trend.
But "impact" doesn’t mean "elimination." ServiceNow’s AI Control Tower, Salesforce’s Headless 360, and Adobe’s Firefly are fundamentally about redefining software’s value proposition in the AI era—not being replaced by AI. As AI agents proliferate, companies actually need more workflow orchestration, access controls, auditing, and data governance platforms. This creates a subtle paradox: AI is eroding the traditional SaaS pricing base while simultaneously creating new platform-level demand.
The disconnect between valuation and fundamentals creates pricing inefficiencies. Adobe trades at about 11.7x trailing earnings, far below the sector median. ServiceNow’s subscription revenue is still growing at 19%. Salesforce’s AI-related ARR has surpassed $3.4 billion. There’s a clear gap between these figures and share price performance—exactly the "fear-driven, not fundamentals-driven" decline Burry describes.
Conclusion
The revaluation of ServiceNow, Salesforce, and Adobe is, at its core, the market’s attempt to redefine "what a software company should be worth in the AI era." This process brings sharp price swings and shifting narratives, but the fundamental data show no sign that these companies’ core businesses are collapsing. Firefly’s quarterly ARR surpassing $300 million, ServiceNow raising its AI revenue target to $1.5 billion, and Salesforce Agentforce’s ARR breaking $1.2 billion—all point to transformation, not extinction.
For investors, the key is distinguishing between "narrative-driven selling" and "fundamentals-driven selling." Michael Burry’s contrarian bet offers a useful framework: If prices are falling due to technical pressures and fear, current levels may already reflect excessive pessimism. And with Gate offering direct access to over 11,500 stocks and ETFs, investors tracking this valuation reset now have a low-barrier, high-efficiency way to participate—using USDT to engage directly in Wall Street’s core asset pricing. In an era where asset boundaries are increasingly blurred, this may well be the most natural way to trade.
