According to Gate market data, as of May 18, 2026, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $77,045.1, with a market capitalization of about $1.54 trillion and a 24-hour trading volume of $4,229.62. After reaching an all-time high of roughly $126,210 on October 6, 2025, Bitcoin began to retreat.
Over the following seven months, market sentiment experienced unusually extreme volatility. The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 8 (out of 100), nearing historic lows. Entering May, prices gradually rebounded to the $77,000–$82,000 range, reigniting sharp disagreements between bulls and bears.
Amid this tug-of-war, Standard Chartered, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, JPMorgan, and Changelly’s quantitative model offered sharply contrasting outlooks for Bitcoin at the end of 2026.
The Four Institutions: Positions and Logic
The core market differences can be summarized as follows:
| Institution | Core Position | 2026 Year-End Forecast | Key Logic | Risk Assumptions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Chartered | Cautiously optimistic | $100,000 | Recovery driven by ETF capital inflows | Escalation of short-term ETF outflows |
| Tom Lee (Fundstrat) | Strongly bullish | $150,000–$250,000 | Leverage flushed out, institutions keep entering | Macro policy shift |
| JPMorgan | Cautiously bearish | No clear target | Q1 capital inflows only about one-third of 2025 level | Rate cut expectations unmet |
| Changelly Quantitative Model | Model bullish | Average ~$188,218, peak ~$204,312 | Historical trend modeling | Black swan events unpredictable |
From Halving to Tug-of-War
Bitcoin completed its fourth halving in April 2024, reducing block rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. Historically, the 12–18 months following a halving often mark the main bullish phase. By this logic, the second half of 2025 through the first half of 2026 is the key window for this cycle.
Key milestones in this cycle:
- October 6, 2025: Bitcoin hit its all-time high of about $126,210. The market weakened and entered a sustained correction.
- January 2026: Prices dropped to around $60,000. JPMorgan no longer expected Fed rate cuts in 2026, putting risk assets under pressure.
- February 12, 2026: Standard Chartered lowered its year-end target from $150,000 to $100,000, warning of a possible short-term drop to $50,000. The Fear and Greed Index fell to 8.
- March–April 2026: Prices gradually rebounded to near $80,000. JPMorgan’s April report noted Q1 crypto asset capital inflows of only about $11 billion, annualized to $44 billion—about one-third of the 2025 level. BTC fell about 23% in Q1.
- May 8, 2026: Tom Lee reiterated at Consensus 2026 that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 to $250,000 by year-end.
- May 18, 2026: Bitcoin on Gate traded at around $77,045.1, down about 1.03% over 24 hours, up about 11.76% in the past 30 days, and down about 22.08% over the past year (Gate market data).
Quantitative Arguments from All Sides
Standard Chartered: From Extreme Panic to Cautious Recovery
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s Head of Digital Asset Research, focuses on ETF capital flows and macro risks. The February target downgrade was mainly due to weakening ETF buying support and rising global macroeconomic risks slowing corporate demand for Bitcoin as a treasury asset.
Despite lowering its target, Standard Chartered still expects Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by year-end, arguing that extreme lows in the Fear and Greed Index typically mark mid-term bottoms and set the stage for a recovery rally.
Tom Lee: The Structural Bull Market Isn’t Over
Tom Lee remains the most resolute bull. At Consensus 2026 on May 8, he set Bitcoin’s year-end range at $150,000–$250,000. From the current level of roughly $77,000, this implies upside of about 95% to 225%.
Lee’s core arguments include:
First, leverage has been flushed out. The correction since the October 2025 peak eliminated many high-leverage positions, making the market structure healthier.
Second, institutional adoption is irreversible. The launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs has created a structural gateway for institutional capital, and long-term inflows aren’t swayed by short-term price moves. ETFs currently hold about 1.3 million BTC, roughly 6.5% of circulating supply.
Third, the four-year cycle may be broken. Lee believes traditional halving cycles could be rewritten in the current macro and institutional environment, with 2026 (typically a correction year) potentially seeing significant gains.
Lee also projects Ethereum’s year-end 2026 range at $9,000–$12,000.
JPMorgan: Capital Inflows Are the Most Honest Signal
JPMorgan takes a cautious stance on the crypto market, basing its judgment on quantitative indicators. According to its April 2026 report, Q1 total digital asset capital inflows were about $11 billion, annualized to $44 billion—only about one-third of the 2025 level.
Even more concerning is the concentration of these inflows. Analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou’s team noted: "Investor flows (retail and institutional) have been small or even negative since the start of the year; most Q1 crypto asset inflows came from Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) Bitcoin purchases and concentrated crypto VC funding."
During Q1, Bitcoin fell about 23%, total crypto market cap dropped about 20%, and Ethereum declined over 30%. These price drops further dampened institutional enthusiasm for CME futures and ETF participation.
On the macro front, JPMorgan stopped expecting Fed rate cuts in 2026 as early as January, with the rate environment continuing to pressure risk assets.
Changelly Quantitative Model: Trends Through the Machine’s Eyes
Changelly is a quantitative forecasting platform based on historical price trends. According to third-party data cited in March 2025, its model predicted Bitcoin’s 2026 average price at about $188,218, with a peak near $204,312—implying a roughly 133% gain from then-current prices. Note that this data is from early 2025 and represents an earlier model forecast.
Quantitative models excel at filtering out human emotion, but their inherent limitations remain: they can’t predict regulatory shifts, macro policy changes, or new systemic risks. Such forecasts are best used as reference frameworks, not as decision-making tools.
Clash of Three Core Narratives
Is the Four-Year Halving Cycle Still Valid?
This is the market’s fundamental debate. One side argues that as halving’s supply impact diminishes, ETF-driven structural demand changes, and institutional participation grows, the traditional four-year boom-and-bust cycle is being redefined. The other side points out that the price action through early 2026 hasn’t fully broken from the cycle—peaking about 18 months after halving, followed by a deep correction, which fits the historical pattern.
Historically, Bitcoin has seen significant gains 12–18 months post-halving, but each cycle’s volatility is decreasing and becoming more contained. Whether this cycle breaks the mold will become clearer in the second half of 2026.
Is Bitcoin a Safe Haven or a Risk Asset?
JPMorgan’s analysis challenges this narrative. The bank notes that the US Dollar Index weakened significantly over the past year, yet Bitcoin declined during the same period—contrasting sharply with the "Bitcoin as digital gold" story. From October 2025 to April 2026, gold outperformed Bitcoin by a wide margin, suggesting that in the current macro environment, Bitcoin behaves more like a risk asset than a safe haven.
In highly liquid environments, Bitcoin and gold move closely together; but during risk-off phases, Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rises sharply. Asset characteristics are dynamic and shouldn’t be oversimplified.
Are ETF Outflows a Structural Reversal or a Temporary Fluctuation?
Standard Chartered analyst Kendrick’s ETF analysis is noteworthy: ETF investors had high entry costs at the end of 2025, and most are now facing unrealized losses, making them inclined to reduce positions. However, ETF demand picked up after March 2026, helping stabilize prices. Whether ETF flows are a trend or a phase will largely determine the market’s direction in the second half of the year.
On-Chain Data Verification: What Objective Signals Say
Beyond institutional views, on-chain data offers an independent reference framework. As of mid-May 2026, several key indicators show the following:
MVRV Z-Score: This metric is currently near 1, in a neutral range. Historically, bull market tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021 corresponded to readings of 12, 11, and 7, respectively. The current reading is far below typical bull market bubble levels and well below the October 2025 peak of around 3.5. This signal does not indicate a market top.
Realized Price and Premium Levels: The cost basis for short-term BTC holders is about $79,100, close to current prices. The market is battling near the cost lines of different holder groups. Compared to extreme premiums seen in past bull market peaks, today’s premium is at a mid-cycle level.
Exchange Balances: As of April 2026, exchange BTC balances dropped to roughly 2.21 million BTC, the lowest in 7–9 years. On March 7, 2026, a single-day outflow of 32,000 BTC set a record. Long-term holders control about 78.3% of circulating supply. Historically, exchange balances tend to rise near market tops, not shrink—today’s pattern is the opposite of typical top signals.
Conclusion
The divergence in institutional forecasts fundamentally reflects that the crypto market is at a critical crossroads. Standard Chartered has lowered its target but still expects a year-end recovery; Tom Lee bets on breaking the cycle logic; JPMorgan expresses caution through capital inflow data; Changelly’s quantitative model offers a middle path based on historical trends.
On-chain data, such as the MVRV Z-Score and other core indicators, show no signs of a typical bull market top. Exchange balances continue to decline, hinting at a fundamental shift in market structure—long-term holders are accumulating rather than selling. However, this doesn’t guarantee an immediate upward reversal. The direction in the second half of 2026 will depend on Fed policy, ETF capital flows, and the global liquidity environment.
