June 25, 2026 marked a day of intense volatility in global capital markets following the turmoil of "Black Tuesday." Bitcoin briefly fell below the key psychological threshold of $60,000, hitting a low of $59,108.6—the lowest since October 2024. Bulls quickly mounted a counterattack, rebounding about 3% from the lows to above $61,000. As of June 25, Gate market data showed Bitcoin trading at $61,738.5, down 1.38% over 24 hours, with a 7.63% decline over the past week and a 10.73% drop over the past 30 days.
Ethereum also came under pressure, dipping below the $1,600 mark and reaching a low of $1,552.72 before bouncing back to $1,648.16. Its 24-hour decline stood at 1.02%, with a 20.92% drop over the past 30 days. The ETH/BTC ratio continued to weaken, reflecting systemic stress on major crypto assets amid macroeconomic headwinds.
The broader crypto market cap fell roughly 4% in 24 hours to $2.06 trillion. The Fear & Greed Index briefly touched 12, signaling extreme fear.
Meanwhile, international oil prices extended their decline. WTI crude futures dropped 2% to $68.919 per barrel, while Brent crude fell below $73 per barrel to $72.94—the first time since February 27, 2026. Persistent energy price deflation and the Fed’s increasingly hawkish stance are creating a rare macro tug-of-war. Drawing on the latest market data as of June 25, this article examines the drivers behind falling oil prices, the deeper implications of Fed policy, and their combined effects on crypto assets to forecast possible market trajectories for the second half of the year.
Oil Prices Hit New Lows: From Geopolitical Premiums to Accelerating Deflationary Pressure
On June 25, international oil prices continued the previous day’s steep decline. WTI crude futures settled at $68.919 per barrel, down 2%. Brent crude closed at $72.94 per barrel, dropping over 1% intraday. By the afternoon, Brent was down 1.15% to $72.89 per barrel, and WTI fell 0.6% to $69.93. Brent crude has plunged about 42% from its April 30 peak of $126 per barrel.
The core driver behind this round of oil price declines is the rapid and sustained unwinding of geopolitical risk premiums. The US and Iran reached a 60-day agreement roadmap, reopening the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. US Energy Secretary Wright noted that oil flows through the Strait are now near pre-war levels. The US has temporarily allowed the purchase of Iranian oil loaded before sanctions tightened, and market expectations are for Persian Gulf oil exports to continue rising.
Supply recovery is accelerating. Macquarie forecasts that as supply chains normalize and the Strait of Hormuz remains open, oil prices will soon return to pre-war levels, predicting average Q3 prices for Brent and WTI at $67 and $62 per barrel, respectively—well below Q2 averages of $94 and $87. On the demand side, Asian markets remain sluggish. Since April, China’s crude imports have declined, and local refinery utilization rates have hit multi-year lows for the season.
The macro implications of falling oil prices go far beyond the energy sector. Brent’s drop from $126 per barrel during the conflict to below $73—a decline of over 40%—impacts asset pricing in two ways: first, by directly lowering inflation expectations; second, by reducing corporate energy costs, improving profit outlooks for non-energy sectors, while weakening earnings prospects for energy companies.
Continued Sell-Off in the Energy Sector: A Mirror of Deflationary Expectations
The persistent decline in oil prices has directly impacted equity markets. On June 25, the S&P 500 preliminarily closed down 0.2%, with the energy sector down 1.7% and tech down 0.8%. The Nasdaq 100 preliminarily closed down 0.6%. Following the US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, falling oil prices weighed on energy stocks. The coal mining sector dropped 1.87%, with 24 stocks down; energy metals fell 2.51%, with 11 stocks declining.
CNBC reported that supply glut fears dragged oil prices lower, with the S&P 500 energy sector tumbling about 2%. The oil price crash compressed refining margins and slowed earnings expectations, triggering broad institutional selling in the energy sector.
The energy sector sell-off is not just a simple reflection of oil prices—it signals the market’s pricing of sustained "energy deflation." When investors believe oil prices will remain low for an extended period, energy companies must systematically reassess capital expenditure plans, dividend capacity, and valuation logic.
More importantly, the sell-off in energy stocks is occurring amid broader market corrections. From June 23 to 24, global markets experienced "Black Tuesday"—South Korea’s KOSPI plunged nearly 10%, triggering circuit breakers; the Nikkei 225 fell 3.55%; Hang Seng Tech dropped 3.30%; the Nasdaq tumbled 2.21%; and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index crashed 7.87%. Crypto markets weakened in tandem, with Bitcoin breaking below the critical $60,000 support. This indicates the market is not merely rotating from energy to tech, but undergoing a systemic contraction in risk appetite across asset classes.
The Fed’s Hawkish Turn: Sustained Pressure on Liquidity Expectations
While falling oil prices tell the supply-side story of energy deflation, the Fed’s policy stance is the dominant variable on the demand and liquidity fronts.
The June 2026 FOMC meeting was the first under new Fed Chair Walsh. The committee unanimously voted (12-0) to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%.
What truly triggered market repricing was the hawkish shift in the dot plot. Of the 18 officials submitting forecasts, 9 expect at least one rate hike by the end of 2026, with 6 favoring a cumulative increase of 50 basis points or more. In March 2026, no official anticipated a rate hike within the year. The median year-end federal funds rate forecast rose from 3.4% in March to 3.8%, implying a single 25 basis point hike. The Fed also sharply raised its core PCE inflation forecast for 2026 from 2.7% to 3.3%, and lowered GDP growth expectations from 2.4% to 2.2%.
Walsh himself did not submit a dot plot forecast, emphasizing that the dot plot is merely a "scenario judgment with an eraser," not a commitment to future policy. However, markets interpreted this as a clear hawkish signal. Fed Chair Powell reiterated in June 24 congressional testimony that he is "not in a hurry to cut rates; if inflation rebounds, tightening will continue." According to CME "FedWatch," markets priced a 65.8% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in July, and a 34.2% chance of a 25 basis point hike. By September, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 49.7%, and 16.7% for a 50 basis point hike. Futures markets imply a December 2026 target rate of 4.05%. The US Dollar Index climbed to 101.8, a 12-month high, while 10-year Treasury yields remained above 4.50%.
Standard Chartered’s Chief Investment Office expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in the second half of the year, with a single rate cut possible in the first half of next year. Until then, crypto markets will likely remain under pressure in a high-rate environment.
The Clash of Two Forces: Crypto Markets Search for a Bottom Amid Macro Uncertainty
Energy deflation and the Fed’s hawkish stance affect crypto assets through distinct—and sometimes contradictory—channels.
As of June 25, 2026, Bitcoin traded at $61,738.5, down 1.38% in 24 hours; Ethereum at $1,648.16, down 1.02%. Bitcoin’s intraday low was $59,108.6, with a high of $63,221.2; Ethereum’s intraday low was $1,552.72. Bitcoin’s market cap stood at about $1.23 trillion, with a 55.42% market share; Ethereum’s market cap was roughly $198.906 billion, with a 7.19% share.
Bitcoin has retraced over 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,193. Over the past week, Bitcoin fell 7.63%; over 30 days, down 10.73%; over the past year, down 33.74%. Ethereum declined 7.38% over the past week, 20.92% over 30 days, and 31.14% over the past year. The repeated battles around the $60,000 mark for Bitcoin essentially reflect ongoing pricing of macro uncertainty.
Leverage structures have amplified downside pressure. During the June 24–25 crash, forced liquidations surged across the network. CoinGlass data shows nearly $800 million in crypto long positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours. The extreme volatility pushed total liquidations to $653 million in the past 24 hours, impacting nearly 140,000 traders.
Why hasn’t energy deflation boosted crypto assets? The answer lies in the Fed’s hawkish stance, which is the dominant pricing force. After the US-Iran breakthrough eased geopolitical risks, the risk premium evaporated quickly, but safe-haven assets did not benefit—they fell alongside risk assets. A strong dollar and hawkish monetary policy added headwinds for Bitcoin, which trades like a non-yielding asset during risk and rate repricing cycles. Gold has also dropped in tandem with crypto, rendering the "safe haven narrative" temporarily ineffective.
Second Half Outlook: Who Will Take the Lead?
Looking ahead to the second half of 2026, the interplay between energy deflation and the Fed’s hawkishness will set the market’s rhythm, but their relative influence is not static.
Scenario 1: Continued Deepening of Energy Deflation. If US-Iran negotiations progress, the Strait of Hormuz remains open, and Persian Gulf oil exports steadily recover, oil prices could further revert to pre-conflict levels. Macquarie forecasts Brent crude averaging $67 per barrel in Q3. In this scenario, persistently low oil prices would depress inflation data, creating pressure for the Fed to revise its hawkish stance. If inflation falls more than expected, markets might reprice the Fed’s policy path—even if the Fed itself hasn’t pivoted yet.
Scenario 2: Renewed Geopolitical Risks. Differences remain between the US and Iran, and negotiations are unlikely to conclude quickly. Technical teams will continue talks in Switzerland through the end of June. Clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz will take several weeks to fully restore normal operations. If talks falter or supply recovery falls short, the geopolitical risk premium could return to oil prices, rapidly reversing the energy deflation narrative.
Scenario 3: Correction in Fed Policy Path. The market has already priced in the Fed’s hawkish stance—dot plots show a possible single rate hike this year. If upcoming economic data (especially inflation and employment) surprise to the downside, markets may start trading expectations of a Fed pivot earlier. Standard Chartered expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in the second half, with rate cuts possible in the first half of next year—meaning that loose policy expectations are unlikely to dominate in the short term.
Conclusion
On June 25, 2026, Bitcoin rebounded to $61,738.5 after dipping below $60,000, symbolizing the current macro tug-of-war. WTI crude fell below $69, Brent dropped under $73, and structural declines in energy prices are reshaping inflation expectations and industry profit outlooks. Meanwhile, the Fed’s hawkish dot plot continues to tighten financial conditions, with a strong dollar and high-rate environment suppressing risk asset valuations.
These two forces do not simply offset each other—they impact different asset classes and timeframes in distinct ways. For crypto market participants, the key is not to judge "oil prices are down, so Bitcoin should rise" or "the Fed is hawkish, so Bitcoin should fall," but to understand the relative influence of these forces at different stages.
At present, the Fed’s policy stance remains the dominant variable—as long as the dot plot points to hikes rather than cuts, risk asset valuations lack a liquidity foundation. Bitcoin’s repeated battles at $60,000 essentially reflect ongoing pricing of macro uncertainty. However, the deepening of energy deflation is laying the groundwork for a potential shift—if oil falls further in Q3 to Macquarie’s forecast of $67 or lower, declining inflation data could eventually undermine the Fed’s hawkish consensus.
The core variable for the second half may not be oil prices themselves, but the extent to which falling oil prices translate into meaningful declines in inflation data—and how much that can alter the Fed’s policy path. Until then, the crypto market will likely continue searching for a bottom under the shadow of macro uncertainty.
FAQ
Q: Why did Bitcoin briefly fall below $60,000 on June 25?
Bitcoin’s drop below $60,000 on June 25 was the result of multiple factors converging: persistent hawkish Fed expectations suppressing risk assets, cascading liquidations in Asia-Pacific markets, and the spillover effects of global "Black Tuesday," all intensifying selling pressure. Bitcoin’s intraday low hit $59,108.6, the lowest since October 2024.
Q: How significant is the US-Iran 60-day temporary authorization for the oil market?
The US and Iran reached a 60-day agreement roadmap, reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The US Energy Secretary reported that roughly 20 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait in the past 24 hours. This development is the core driver behind oil’s drop from the conflict high of $126 per barrel to below $73.
Q: What is JPMorgan’s outlook for oil prices in the second half of the year?
On June 24, JPMorgan lowered its Brent crude outlook, forecasting an average of $86 per barrel in Q3, $80 in Q4, and $78 by year-end 2026. The main reasons are commercial inventory declines in OECD countries falling short of expectations, and demand losses exceeding forecasts. Macquarie’s forecast is more bearish, expecting Brent to average $67 per barrel in Q3.
Q: Will the Fed hike or cut rates in the second half of 2026?
The June FOMC dot plot shows a year-end median rate of 3.8%, up 40 basis points from March, with 9 officials expecting at least one hike this year. According to CME "FedWatch," markets price a 49.7% chance of a 25 basis point hike by September. Standard Chartered expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in the second half.
Q: Does the sell-off in energy stocks signal the market is pricing in a recession?
The S&P 500 energy sector fell 1.7% on June 25, mainly dragged down by falling oil prices. However, the sell-off occurred amid broader market corrections—both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have declined for three consecutive days. This reflects the unwinding of geopolitical risk premiums and contraction in risk appetite, rather than simply pricing in recession expectations.
