In the first half of 2026, global capital markets exhibited extreme divergence. The Nasdaq 100 Index, dominated by tech stocks, rose about 20% over the period. However, the driving force behind this rally was no longer the "Magnificent Seven" that had led the charge in the previous two years—their total return actually dropped roughly 2% in the first half. Capital is shifting away from traditional AI application giants toward the hardware supply chain that underpins AI infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market endured its toughest half-year since the launch of spot ETFs. Bitcoin pulled back more than 50% from its all-time high of $126,000 at the end of 2025, falling 32% in the first half. Ethereum’s decline was even steeper, at 47%. For the first time, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a half-year net outflow of $5.4 billion. Commodities markets also saw dramatic swings—gold hit a record high of $5,598/oz in January, then plunged nearly 30%. Brent crude, which neared $120/barrel in March, dropped back to around $70/barrel. This article systematically reviews the winners and losers across AI chip stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities, and foreign exchange in the first half of 2026, and attempts to extrapolate potential logic paths for the second half.
AI Chip Stocks: A Dramatic Internal Rotation
The first half of 2026 saw a striking power shift within the AI chip sector.
NVIDIA, which had surged about 900% over the past five years, unexpectedly "stalled" in the first half—its stock rose just 7.2%. Meanwhile, long-suppressed peers AMD and Intel soared 171% and 278%, respectively. This dramatic rotation reflects a classic narrative: capital moving from crowded leading AI trades to undervalued alternatives.
Intel has long dominated the CPU market, currently holding over 59% share. AMD climbed from a low of about 17% in 2016 to 38% today. Crucially, under CEO Lianwu Chen, Intel has accelerated its AI transformation strategy; last summer, the US government acquired a roughly 10% stake for $10 billion. In its latest quarterly report, Intel’s revenue grew 7%, beating expectations for the sixth consecutive quarter. AMD achieved growth in the GPU market, offsetting its lagging CPU share.
Zooming out, the AI infrastructure supply chain has decisively outperformed the traditional "Magnificent Seven." The storage sector surged 318.49% in the first half, topping all industry segments. Computer hardware rose 165%, semiconductor equipment and materials climbed 129%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 101%. Nearly all of the Nasdaq 100’s 20% gain was driven by ten AI-related chipmakers and storage hardware companies.
Looking ahead to the second half, the direction of rotation may reverse again. NVIDIA’s current forward P/E is about 22x; after a flat first half, its valuation now appears relatively cheap. In contrast, AMD and Intel’s triple-digit rallies have pushed their valuations into expensive territory. NVIDIA is set to launch its first standalone CPU this fall as part of the Vera Rubin platform, forecasting $20 billion in sales for this new product in 2026. CPUs are the key chips powering "agent-based AI," and the market widely expects this to be the next growth engine for AI. With valuation recovery and new business catalysts, NVIDIA’s odds of outperforming in the second half are rising.
Cryptocurrency: The First Half-Year Net Outflow in the ETF Era
The first half of 2026 brought the toughest test for crypto markets since the introduction of spot ETFs.
By the end of June, Bitcoin had fallen 32%, Ethereum 47%. Strategy—the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder—dropped 43%. The total crypto market cap shrank about 30% to $2 trillion, erasing all gains since Trump’s election in November 2024.
Capital flow data reveals deeper structural issues. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $5.4 billion in net outflows in the first half of 2026—the first half-year negative since launch. BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounted for $5 billion of outflows in May and June. Spot Ethereum ETFs also recorded their first half-year net outflow since launch, with $1.47 billion withdrawn over 123 trading days.
The deterioration in Q2 was particularly sharp. Bitcoin briefly rebounded to around $82,000 in April, but then reversed course. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $4.08 billion in net outflows in Q2, with $3.84 billion occurring in June alone. Bitcoin fell about 11% in Q2, Ethereum about 20%. Total liquidations of long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum reached $8.35 billion.
DWF Labs notes that the AI boom coincided with Bitcoin ETFs’ first half-year loss—capital and attention are shifting from crypto to AI. This rotation effect was especially pronounced in Q2: while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose about 16% and 28%, crypto assets continued to correct.
However, market sentiment improved marginally in July. In the early hours of July 7, 2026 (Beijing time), strong buying surged into the crypto market. Bitcoin broke decisively above the $63,000 resistance, temporarily trading at $64,159. Ethereum followed, surpassing the $1,800 mark. BTC rose about 1.7% in 24 hours, with a seven-day gain exceeding 6%—the highest in two weeks. According to CoinGlass, $160 million was liquidated across the network in the past four hours, including $112 million in short positions. This rally triggered a cascade of short stop-losses, creating a chain "short squeeze" effect.
On-chain data shows daily exchange transfers by long-term holders dropped from an average of 8,040 BTC a week ago to 4,130 BTC recently, indicating a significant easing of selling pressure. The derivatives market is stabilizing, with Bitcoin perpetual funding rates rising to 9% and long-short positions approaching balance.
On the macro front, Fed policy remains the key variable. As of July 7, the CME "FedWatch" tool showed a 77% probability that the Fed would keep rates unchanged in July. Fed Governor Waller has warned that inflation risks now outweigh employment risks, and June CPI data will be crucial for judging the July meeting and whether further rate hikes are warranted. If rate hike expectations fade further, it could provide additional macro liquidity support for the crypto market.
Commodities and Forex: Winners and Losers in a Roller-Coaster Market
Commodities markets also experienced extreme volatility in the first half.
Gold was undoubtedly one of the biggest losers. On January 29, 2026, London spot gold hit a record high of $5,598.75/oz. It then weakened steadily, falling below $4,000/oz by late June—a drop of over $1,600, or nearly 30% from the peak. London spot gold prices fell 7.51% overall in the first half. Multiple factors weighed on gold: capital outflows to the AI sector, a strengthening dollar, and rising expectations for Fed rate hikes. Gold lost over 13% in Q2, marking its worst single-quarter performance since Q2 2013.
Oil saw an extreme "roller-coaster" ride. Brent crude futures neared $120/barrel in March, then retreated sharply, dropping to around $70/barrel by the end of June and erasing all gains from the US-Iran conflict. However, with a low starting point in early 2026, WTI crude still gained 21.6% in the first half, while Brent rose 20%. Oil was one of the few commodities to post positive returns in the period.
In the forex market, the US dollar index first weakened, then strengthened, rising from a low of 95.5 at the start of the year to above 101 by mid-year—a gain of nearly 3%. USD/JPY climbed 3.8%, with the yen depreciating to a near 40-year low. The stronger dollar added extra pressure to dollar-denominated gold and cryptocurrencies.
Conclusion
The first half of 2026 in global capital markets was essentially a concentrated release of the "AI hardware" trend. Capital migrated from software, platform economies, and some traditional tech giants to hardware supply chains—chip manufacturing, storage devices, and semiconductor equipment. This was the clearest migration path for capital in the first half.
Violent rotation within AI chip stocks, deep pullbacks in crypto, gold’s plunge, and oil’s roller-coaster ride together created a highly polarized market landscape. Yet behind this divergence lies a unified logic thread: uncertainty in Fed monetary policy, doubts about the sustainability of AI capital expenditures, and recurring geopolitical risks all shaped the market structure in the first half.
Looking into the second half, several key variables warrant close attention: whether NVIDIA’s fall CPU launch will spark a new hardware narrative, the Fed’s policy direction at the July meeting, and whether the crypto market can rebuild capital inflows after a half-year net outflow. Regardless of direction, the second half of 2026 will likely continue to be dominated by the interplay between AI hardware and macro liquidity.
FAQ
Q: Why did AI chip stocks diverge so dramatically in the first half of 2026?
NVIDIA rose only 7.2% in the first half, while AMD and Intel soared 171% and 278%. The core driver was capital shifting from highly valued leading AI names to CPU stocks that had previously lagged but showed improving fundamentals. Intel received a $10 billion investment from the US government and beat expectations for six consecutive quarters; AMD made breakthroughs in the GPU market. These factors provided fundamental support for their catch-up rallies.
Q: Why did Bitcoin fall 32% in the first half of 2026?
Three factors combined: spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first half-year net outflow of $5.4 billion; capital rotated massively into high-growth AI stocks; and Fed monetary policy expectations turned hawkish. Bitcoin pulled back over 50% from its late-2025 all-time high of $126,000.
Q: What caused Bitcoin to break above $64,000 on July 7?
In the early hours of July 7 (Beijing time), bullish traders launched a surprise attack, pushing Bitcoin decisively above the $63,000 resistance. The rally triggered a cascade of short stop-losses, creating a chain "short squeeze" effect. Over the past four hours, $160 million was liquidated across the network, including $112 million in short positions. On-chain data also shows that selling pressure from long-term holders has eased significantly.
Q: Why did gold plunge in the first half of 2026?
London spot gold fell nearly 30% from its January record high of $5,598/oz to below $4,000. The decline followed a full transmission cycle: "geopolitical premium surge → energy inflation backlash → monetary tightening expectations." Combined with capital outflows to AI and a stronger dollar, gold’s safe-haven appeal almost completely failed in the first half.
Q: Which assets could be winners in the second half of 2026?
NVIDIA’s forward P/E is only about 22x, and it will launch its first standalone CPU this fall. Valuation recovery and new business catalysts could drive renewed outperformance. In crypto, if the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July and ETF outflows reverse, Bitcoin may get some breathing room. However, all projections depend on actual macro liquidity and corporate earnings.
