July 10, 2026 — According to Gate market data, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) stands at $63,985.3, up 2.48% over the past 24 hours, with a 0.72% gain over the past week and a 2.46% increase in the last 30 days. However, when viewed over a one-year period, BTC is still down 45.66% compared to the same time last year. This data highlights the market’s current core dilemma: a short-term rebound coexisting with sustained long-term pressure.
After a sharp correction in June that saw Bitcoin briefly dip below $60,000, the price rebounded from a low of around $57,800 to nearly $64,000. Yet, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode notes in its latest weekly report that Bitcoin has traded below two key averages for about five months—the True Market Mean at $76,600 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $72,200. This means Bitcoin is currently trading at about a 16.5% discount to the True Market Mean and an 11.4% discount to the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis.
Glassnode defines this state as the "deep value zone." Historically, such a prolonged period of discounted trading—five consecutive months below these two critical averages—marks a rare deep value cycle in Bitcoin’s history. However, "deep value" does not equate to a "confirmed bottom." To understand the current bottoming process in Bitcoin, we need to analyze on-chain data, off-chain institutional behavior, and the derivatives market.
Macro Backdrop: Risk Asset Correlation Amid Geopolitical Shocks
Before diving into on-chain data, it’s important to first understand how the current macro environment is impacting Bitcoin.
This week, WTI crude oil prices experienced significant volatility. Triggered by US-Iran military tensions, oil prices spiked sharply before retreating as US officials reaffirmed their commitment to a memorandum of understanding with Iran and ongoing technical discussions. As of July 10, WTI crude traded near $72.37. These swings in geopolitical risk directly affected risk asset pricing: in US equities, the S&P 500 rose 0.81% to 7,543.64, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.30% to 26,206.89—indicating risk appetite recovered as oil prices cooled.
Bitcoin mirrored this risk asset behavior, coming under pressure as geopolitical risks escalated and rebounding as tensions eased. While this correlation is not surprising, it underscores that Bitcoin’s current pricing is influenced not only by on-chain supply and demand, but also by macro liquidity and geopolitical risk premiums.
On the liquidity front, signals are mixed. US M2 money supply has reached a record $22.8 trillion; historically, broad money expansion tends to benefit risk assets. However, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet continues to shrink, down about $2.0 trillion from its 2023 peak. Real yields remain close to 1%, meaning the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin is still relatively high. The macro environment is not completely closed off, but the door isn’t fully open either.
On-Chain Data: Five Months in the Deep Value Zone and Long-Term Holder Capitulation
Turning back to on-chain metrics, the key feature of the current market is that Bitcoin has been trading in the "deep value zone" for about five months.
The two key benchmarks tracked by Glassnode—the True Market Mean ($76,600) and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis ($72,200)—represent the average cost of active investors and the breakeven point for recent buyers, respectively. When prices remain below both levels for an extended period, it means both seasoned active investors and recent entrants are, on average, underwater.
Historically, such a prolonged period of deep discount trading is rare for Bitcoin. Glassnode points out that sustained accumulation in this discount zone—where new capital is deployed below both recent buyer and broader market cost bases—has historically laid the foundation for cyclical bottoms. For value-driven investors, this area is attractive from a valuation perspective.
However, the key is identifying the main source of current downward pressure. Glassnode’s data reveals that long-term holders (addresses holding coins for over 155 days) are now the dominant force behind realized losses. Specifically:
Long-term holder losses have surged sharply. In early February 2026, long-term holders accounted for about 15% of total realized losses across the network; by early July, this figure had jumped to 43%. In other words, $43 out of every $100 in realized losses now comes from long-term holders capitulating.
Daily realized losses hit a new high since December 2022. Using a 30-day moving average, long-term holders’ entity-adjusted realized losses have recently climbed to about $280 million per day. This is the highest level since the FTX collapse and marks the second major capitulation wave for long-term holders in this bear market.
The capitulation wave has not cooled off. Unlike the partial cooling seen after the first wave, the current long-term holder realized loss metric has yet to show any meaningful contraction. Glassnode clearly states that until this indicator compresses significantly, the path to a credible bull market regime remains blocked.
The micro logic here is that investors who bought near the cycle top in 2024–2025 have seen their conviction thresholds repeatedly tested after months of declines. Each attempt at a price rebound faces renewed selling from this underwater cohort. This directly explains why Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to reclaim the upper end of its trading range.
It’s also important to note that, even at these deep discounts, further declines toward the Realized Price—around $53,000—cannot be ruled out. The Realized Price represents the average on-chain acquisition cost for all circulating Bitcoin and serves as a reliable support reference during bear markets.
Off-Chain Data: ETF Outflows Slow, but Institutional Demand Remains Unsteady
Shifting from on-chain to off-chain, flows in spot Bitcoin ETFs provide another window into institutional demand.
Net outflows have slowed but continue. The 30-day moving average net flows for US spot Bitcoin ETFs turned negative in mid-May. In early June, daily net outflows peaked at $193 million, then narrowed to about $88.9 million. Glassnode views the slowdown in outflows as a "tentative positive signal," but emphasizes that the market remains in net outflow territory on a monthly basis. Institutional demand has yet to stabilize.
Trading volumes remain far below bull market peaks. Average daily ETF trading volume hovers between $650 million and $950 million. While this matches Q4 2024 levels, it’s down about 80% from the October 2025 peak of $4.4 billion per day. Persistently low volumes indicate that ETF investor confidence has not meaningfully recovered.
Logically, narrowing ETF outflows are a necessary but not sufficient condition for institutional demand recovery. Two signals are needed: sustained growth in daily trading volume and net flows returning to neutral or positive territory. Neither has materialized yet.
Derivatives Market: Long Positioning and Defensive Hedging Coexist
Signals from the derivatives market are more nuanced, characterized as "directionally bullish, but with lingering caution."
Put/Call ratio drops to 2026 low. The options market’s put/call open interest ratio has fallen to 0.56, its lowest since 2026. This means there are about two call options for every put option, indicating waning demand for directional bearish bets. Perpetual futures funding rates remain well below the 0.01% neutral line and far below levels that would indicate excessive long positioning. This suggests the derivatives market has partially de-risked and is cautiously leaning bullish.
But options skew still prices in downside risk. Unlike the directional signals from positioning, the 25-delta skew (the premium for puts over calls) is bid across all maturities. In late June, front-end skew surged to 24%, its most defensive level since the February sell-off. Traders are still paying to hedge against further declines, even as overall positioning tilts bullish.
Spot price sits below the max pain point. Bitcoin’s current price is about 6% below the options market’s aggregate max pain point (around $66,000). The max pain point is where the most options expire worthless, and spot prices often gravitate toward this level before expiry. The current discount is mid-range for 2026—neither as extreme as the February sell-off nor signaling a clear upward reversal.
Volatility is near 12-month lows. Bitcoin’s DVOL volatility index is close to its lowest point in 12 months. This low-volatility regime is dominated by caution, though that caution is slowly fading. The options volatility smile shows that 1-month put wings have been repriced lower throughout the rebound, with implied volatility on 5% out-of-the-money puts dropping significantly. The market is still pricing in downside risk, but absolute hedging costs have meaningfully declined.
Conclusion
Across on-chain, off-chain, and derivatives data, the current Bitcoin market presents a classic "late bear market" profile.
On-chain, five months in the deep value zone and $280 million per day in long-term holder realized losses confirm that supply redistribution is underway. But as Glassnode notes, a sustained cooling in this capitulation metric is a prerequisite for a credible regime shift.
Off-chain, ETF net outflows have narrowed from their June peak, but monthly flows remain negative and daily trading volume is still about 80% below the October 2025 high—meaning institutional conviction has yet to return.
In derivatives, the put/call ratio at 2026 lows signals weakening bearish demand, but skew and the volatility surface continue to price in meaningful downside risk.
The bottom line: The foundational conditions for a Bitcoin bottom are forming, but confirmation signals have yet to appear. The market needs to see further cooling of long-term holder capitulation, stabilization of institutional flows, and a sustained recovery of price above the True Market Mean. Until then, Bitcoin remains "in the bottoming process" rather than having confirmed a bottom.
For market participants, the key at this stage is not to judge "whether the bottom is in," but to identify which signals will form the evidentiary chain for bottom confirmation. The three key indicators—compression of long-term holder losses, ETF net flows returning to neutral, and price reclaiming the True Market Mean—will be the most important variables to watch in the coming weeks and months.
FAQ
Q1: What is Bitcoin’s current price level?
As of July 10, 2026, the Bitcoin price is $63,985.3, up 2.48% in the past 24 hours and 2.46% over the past 30 days. The price has rebounded from the June low of around $57,800, but remains well below the True Market Mean of $76,600 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $72,200.
Q2: What is the "deep value zone"?
Glassnode defines the "deep value zone" as a state where the price is below both the True Market Mean ($76,600) and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis ($72,200). Bitcoin has traded in this zone for about five months, marking one of the longest deep value cycles in its history.
Q3: Why are long-term holders selling heavily?
The share of realized losses from long-term holders (holding coins for over 155 days) has risen from 15% in February to 43%, with daily realized losses around $280 million—the highest since December 2022. Most of these investors bought near the cycle top and have been forced to cut losses after months of declines.
Q4: What are the capital flows like for Bitcoin ETFs?
The 30-day moving average net outflow for US spot Bitcoin ETFs has narrowed from a peak of $193 million per day in early June to $88.9 million per day. However, monthly flows remain negative, and daily trading volume of $650 million to $950 million is down about 80% from the October 2025 high.
Q5: What signals are needed to confirm a bottom?
Glassnode notes that three core signals are needed for bottom confirmation: further cooling of long-term holder capitulation, stabilization of ETF flows (net flows returning to neutral), and Bitcoin price sustaining above the True Market Mean ($76,600). Currently, none of these conditions have been fully met.
