At the end of February 2026, a military conflict between the US and Iran erupted, plunging the Strait of Hormuz—a strategic waterway that handles about one-fifth of global oil trade—into its most severe transit crisis in decades. Four months on, the question of when the strait will return to normal operations remains a central concern for the global energy market, the shipping industry, and crypto asset traders alike.
According to the latest data from Gate Prediction Market, as of June 29, 2026, there is a 39% probability that the Strait of Hormuz will resume normal traffic by July 31, while the probability of restoration by December 31 rises to 83%.
These probability figures are not merely a reflection of market sentiment—they represent the "collective wisdom" of thousands of participants who have put real money on the line.
Why the Strait of Hormuz Is the "Lifeline" of the Global Economy
To understand how these probabilities are priced, it’s essential to grasp the strategic importance of this waterway.
The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean and narrows to just about 33 kilometers at its tightest point. Under normal conditions, roughly 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products pass through the strait daily—about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade, with around 80% destined for Asia. In addition, about 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade also relies on this passage.
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), about 20 million barrels of oil per day transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, representing nearly $600 billion in annual energy trade. More than 90% of crude oil produced in the Gulf region must pass through this channel.
Because of this, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) noted in its June 28 report that the historic closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered an energy and raw materials supply crisis, posing a significant threat to the global economic outlook.
The Current Situation: Ceasefire, Conflict, and "Dual Rules"
June 2026 saw dramatic swings in the situation at the Strait of Hormuz.
On June 14, the US and Iran reached a provisional ceasefire memorandum, briefly calming Middle East geopolitical volatility. However, this respite was short-lived. On June 20, Iran’s armed forces announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, citing US non-compliance with the memorandum and Israel’s continued violations of the ceasefire agreement, and barred all ships from passing.
The conflict escalated from there. On June 27 and 28, the US launched consecutive airstrikes on targets along Iran’s southern coast. Iran retaliated with strikes on US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Both sides accused each other of violating the ceasefire arrangements.
As of June 29, the situation took a subtle turn. US officials confirmed that Washington and Tehran had agreed to suspend hostilities in the Persian Gulf and would restart negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz dispute. At the same time, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that, under the preliminary US-Iran peace agreement, Iran has exclusive rights to manage shipping in the strait. He warned that any attempts to bypass Iranian control could trigger further military action.
Currently, a de facto "dual rules" regime is emerging in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran requires all vessels to report to the Revolutionary Guard Navy and follow designated routes; the US is encouraging ships to use the southern channel near Oman, backed by its military presence. For commercial ships, the main risk is the coexistence of competing rules and inconsistent standards.
From 39% to 83%: The Market Logic Behind the Probability Curve
The probability structure provided by the Gate Prediction Market essentially prices in the complexity of the current situation.
The 39% probability of restoration by July 31 reflects the market’s cautious outlook on a sustainable near-term solution. This assessment is well-grounded:
First, mine clearance and channel restoration take time. NYK Line CEO Takaya Takazawa told the Financial Times that due to the need for demining, it could take several months for shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to return to pre-war levels. Currently, vessels can only use two extremely narrow routes.
Second, the backlog of shipping capacity is slow to clear. Data from commodity shipping analytics firm Kpler shows that tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz plummeted by about 92% during the crisis. The Gulf region still hosts a large number of oil tankers and LNG carriers waiting for passage, with some estimates involving over a hundred vessels and more than 172 million barrels of floating crude storage. The International Energy Agency (IEA) assessed on June 17 that the recovery of Middle Eastern oil supply will be a gradual process.
Third, insurance and safety confidence have yet to be rebuilt. War risk premiums remain elevated, and shipowners’ operating costs are still significantly above pre-crisis levels. Several leading shipping companies have made it clear they will not resume operations based solely on bilateral diplomatic documents.
The 83% probability of restoration by December 31 signals the market’s strong confidence in a resolution within the year. The logic supporting this view includes:
First, both sides are bearing enormous costs. The closure of the strait is also a heavy blow to Iran’s economy, and Iran did not previously have full control over the strait. Ongoing military confrontation not only damages Iran’s international standing but also prevents it from securing stable economic gains.
Second, international mediation pressure is mounting. Pakistan previously brokered the ceasefire, and after talks in Switzerland, technical negotiations between the US and Iran are underway. While recent clashes have added uncertainty, diplomatic channels remain open.
Third, the global energy market is forcing the issue. After Iran suspended talks on June 1, Brent crude briefly surged above $97 per barrel. Persistently high oil prices will drive up global inflation, forcing major economies to step up mediation efforts. The BIS has already identified inflation triggered by Middle East conflict as the top global economic risk.
Why the Crypto Market Cares About the Strait of Hormuz
The status of the Strait of Hormuz directly affects the crypto asset market through three clear transmission channels.
First: Risk appetite transmission. When geopolitical conflict escalates, global risk assets come under collective pressure. After the US-Iran conflict broke out in late February 2026, Bitcoin fell from $73,000 to below $60,000 within weeks. On June 26, as tensions in the strait flared again, the crypto market saw a broad sell-off, with $1.1 billion in liquidations and over 150,000 traders affected in just 24 hours. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index plunged to 13, entering the "extreme fear" zone.
Second: Inflation expectations transmission. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz directly drive up oil prices, and energy costs are a key input for core inflation. When oil prices rise, inflation expectations heat up, the Fed’s rate cut expectations are pushed back, and liquidity tightens—creating structural headwinds for crypto assets that rely on ample liquidity.
Third: Safe-haven narrative shift. In periods of prolonged geopolitical uncertainty, some capital may rotate back into Bitcoin and other "non-sovereign assets" as a safe haven. However, the effectiveness of this logic depends on the duration and intensity of the conflict—short-term shocks tend to suppress all risk assets, while only medium- to long-term uncertainty may drive differentiated demand for safe havens.
Gate Prediction Market’s pricing of the probability for the Strait of Hormuz’s reopening essentially provides a baseline scenario reference for these three transmission channels. The 39% short-term probability means the market has not yet priced in a "July resolution" as the base case; the 83% year-end probability suggests the market sees the odds of an extreme scenario (no restoration all year) at just 17%.
Four Key Milestones for Resuming Navigation
Synthesizing information from various sources, the full restoration of the Strait of Hormuz requires crossing the following four thresholds in sequence:
First, military de-escalation. The US and Iran must reach consensus on "control over transit definitions"—specifically, who determines "safe passage" and who sets and enforces the rules. This is the prerequisite for all subsequent steps.
Second, mine clearance and channel safety verification. Even with a political agreement, demining and channel clearing will take several weeks to months. Shipping companies generally require third-party verification of the entire route’s safety.
Third, clearing the backlog of shipping capacity. Over a hundred vessels and more than 172 million barrels of floating crude storage must be released in an orderly fashion. Analysts estimate that, if all goes smoothly, traffic could recover to about 50% of pre-war levels within 30 days.
Fourth, normalization of insurance underwriting. The insurance market typically lags behind political developments; only when insurers lower risk ratings will commercial shipping truly return to normal.
Conclusion
The restoration of the Strait of Hormuz is not a "flip-the-switch" event, but rather a phased, gradual process.
Gate Prediction Market data as of June 29, 2026, presents a clear probability distribution: a 39% chance of restoration by July 31, and an 83% chance by December 31. The gap between these two figures precisely captures the market’s rational assessment of "short-term obstacles" versus "medium- to long-term inevitability."
In the short term, the time required for demining, the backlog of shipping capacity, elevated insurance costs, and the fundamental US-Iran disagreement over "control of transit definitions" all present real barriers to full restoration by the end of July. In the medium to long term, the economic and international pressures on both sides, the forcing mechanism of the global energy market, and the persistence of diplomatic channels keep the probability of a resolution within the year at a high level.
For participants in the crypto market, the restoration process for the Strait of Hormuz is not just a geopolitical event—it’s a key variable affecting risk appetite, inflation expectations, and the liquidity environment. Gate Prediction Market’s probability data offers traders a risk-pricing framework grounded in collective market intelligence.
FAQ
Q1: How does Gate Prediction Market generate its probability data?
Prediction markets aggregate dispersed information from a large number of participants, converting the probability of an event into a tradable price signal. The probabilities shown on Gate Prediction Market essentially reflect participants’ collective bets on the progress of US-Iran negotiations, willingness for military restraint, and the effectiveness of external mediation. Every percentage point movement reflects the market’s real-time response to the latest information.
Q2: Why is the probability of restoration by July 31 only 39%, while it rises to 83% by December 31?
The difference between these two figures reflects the market’s differentiated assessment of the likelihood of restoration within different timeframes. In the short term (by the end of July), the time needed for demining, backlog clearance, insurance costs, and fundamental US-Iran disagreements over transit rules all pose significant obstacles. In the medium to long term (within the year), the economic and international pressures on both sides, the forcing mechanism of the global energy market, and the continued existence of diplomatic channels keep the probability of resolution high.
Q3: What does the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz mean for the crypto market?
Reopening the strait typically means a reduction in geopolitical risk premiums, and risk assets may see a period of recovery. However, the restoration process itself is gradual—from military de-escalation and demining, to clearing backlogs and normalizing insurance, each stage can trigger periodic repricing in the market. Changes in Gate Prediction Market probabilities can serve as a reference for tracking shifts in market expectations.
Q4: What is the current status of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz?
Currently, vessels can only use two extremely narrow routes—one near Iran’s Larak Island, and another near Oman to the south. Shipping volumes are well below pre-war levels; according to the CEO of NYK Line, current throughput is less than half of normal. The Gulf region remains crowded with oil tankers and LNG carriers awaiting passage.
Q5: What factors could change the current probability of restoration?
Key variables affecting the probability of restoration include: the outbreak or de-escalation of a new round of US-Iran military conflict, the pace of mine clearance, the actual timetable for major shipping companies to resume routes, adjustments in insurance market risk ratings, and the involvement of third parties (such as the International Maritime Organization or Gulf states) in managing the strait. Any unexpected change in these variables could prompt a repricing of probabilities on Gate Prediction Market.
