On July 24, 2026, at 5:51 PM local time, SpaceX successfully launched Starship from its Starbase facility in Texas, marking the company’s first major test flight since its record-setting IPO in June. The rocket lifted off and reached orbit smoothly, deploying 20 next-generation Starlink V3 satellites after approximately 18 minutes of flight. All 33 Raptor engines on the Super Heavy booster ignited as planned, with the booster splashing down in the Gulf of Mexico as scheduled, while the Starship upper stage executed a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk shared on social media, "Starship is intact, floating in the ocean and transmitting telemetry data."
However, the excitement at the launch site did not translate to the capital markets. On July 24, SpaceX stock (SPCX) closed regular trading at $115.07, down 2.68%, hitting a new low since its IPO. Why did a near-flawless test flight fail to boost the stock price? What disconnect exists between Starship’s technological breakthroughs and SPCX’s market performance?
What Technical Breakthroughs Did Starship’s 13th Test Flight Achieve?
This flight marked the second launch of the Starship V3 and the rocket’s 13th test overall. Compared to previous flights, which saw explosions, uncontrolled spins, and premature engine shutdowns, this mission achieved several key milestones.
During launch, all 33 Raptor engines on the Super Heavy booster ignited successfully, propelling Starship to near-orbital velocity. About six minutes after liftoff, the booster splashed down in the Gulf of Mexico as planned, a significant improvement over the previous (12th) test, where the booster failed to complete its return burn and crashed uncontrollably into the sea. During this flight, Starship’s upper stage successfully reignited a Raptor engine in orbit, demonstrating a critical capability for future orbital missions.
Notably, Starship deployed 20 new Starlink V3 satellites for the first time. Manufactured at SpaceX’s Redmond, Washington facility, these satellites feature solar panels that generate twice the power of previous generations. The SpaceX Starlink team has established contact with all 20 V3 satellites. The Starship upper stage ultimately made what was described as "the softest splashdown ever" in the Indian Ocean, remaining fully intact and providing the first comprehensive imagery of an undamaged thermal protection system.
SpaceX spokesperson Dan Huot called the landing nearly perfect. However, it’s important to note that this mission did not attempt the aerial robotic arm capture and recovery technique successfully demonstrated in a 2024 test flight—a core technology for rapid rocket reusability.
Why Didn’t the Successful Test Flight Boost SPCX’s Stock Price?
News of the successful test flight did not alter SPCX’s downward trend. On July 24, SPCX closed at $115.07, a record low since listing. From its intraday peak of $225.64 in mid-June, the stock has fallen over 49%. Market capitalization has shrunk from a peak of more than $2.6 trillion to about $1.51 trillion.
The market’s muted reaction to the test flight highlights several structural contradictions. First, the stock’s wild swings post-IPO reflect intense speculation—shares surged nearly 50% in the first three days, only to enter a prolonged decline. Second, investor focus has shifted from "can the technology succeed?" to "can it deliver commercial returns?" Starship development has already cost more than $15 billion, yet the rocket has not completed a full orbital mission, and crewed flights and commercial operations remain distant goals.
Tim Farrar, an expert at satellite consultancy TMF Associates, noted that while the test flight showed progress for SpaceX’s Starship project, "there’s still a long way to go before achieving full rapid reusability." For capital markets, technical milestones matter, but the ultimate anchor for valuation is the business model and cash flow outlook.
What Does the Post-IPO Valuation Correction Reveal About Market Expectations?
On June 12, 2026, SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history at $135 per share. Before listing, the company targeted a valuation of about $1.75 trillion. On the third trading day post-IPO, shares hit an all-time high of $225.64.
The subsequent decline signals a dramatic valuation correction. A drop of over 49% from the high suggests a fundamental shift in how the market prices SpaceX. As IPO euphoria faded, investors began scrutinizing the company’s fundamentals—SpaceX remains unprofitable and must continue heavy capital investment in both Starship and AI infrastructure.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas noted that persistent selling has pushed the stock close to levels where the market assigns virtually no value to the AI business. He observed that many investors have deeply discounted Grok and Cursor, valuing AI at zero or even negative, given the high capital requirements and uncertain returns compared to the space and connectivity businesses. This highlights SpaceX’s core valuation dilemma: the market is reassessing the true worth of each of its diversified segments.
Why Is the End of the Lock-Up Period a Looming Threat?
The most immediate pressure on SPCX’s short-term performance is the upcoming expiration of the IPO lock-up period. On August 4, SpaceX will release its first earnings report as a public company; on August 6, about 911.5 million pre-IPO shares will become unlocked—a number that even exceeds the 629 million shares sold in the June IPO.
This means that nearly 30% of the float could hit the market overnight. More importantly, the current share price is well below the $175.50 lock-up trigger threshold. Many early investors and insiders hold shares at a much lower cost, creating strong incentives to cash out once the lock-up ends.
The market has already priced this in. After the successful test flight on July 24, SPCX continued to fall 1.48% after hours to $113.37. Over the past five trading days, the stock has dropped 7.2%. Short interest is also high—by mid-July, shorts accounted for about 29% of the float. These figures indicate that bearish investors are actively betting on further declines in SPCX.
The Musk Effect: How It Transmits from SpaceX to Dogecoin
The significance of the Starship test flight extends beyond aerospace and the stock market. As one of the most influential figures in crypto, Musk’s major company events often trigger sentiment shifts in digital assets.
Historical data shows that Musk’s tweets and SpaceX announcements have repeatedly caused significant DOGE price swings. When SpaceX announced it would accept Dogecoin for merchandise and use DOGE-1 for a lunar mission, the cryptocurrency surged. A successful Starship launch could spark renewed optimism around Musk-related ventures, potentially increasing buying pressure on Dogecoin.
However, this transmission effect is diminishing. In March 2026, Musk’s AI-generated "Father of Dogecoin" video barely moved the market. DOGE currently trades around $0.073, down about 55% year-over-year. The market’s sensitivity to Musk’s "calls" has dropped significantly.
Yet, SpaceX’s status as a public company adds a new dimension. SpaceX holds over 18,000 Bitcoin (specifically 18,712), purchased for about $661 million and valued at $1.29 billion as of March 31, 2026. This means SPCX shareholders are indirectly exposed to Bitcoin price volatility. SpaceX will disclose its Bitcoin holdings in each quarterly report, creating a new narrative cycle around corporate crypto adoption.
Ending Falcon Orders: Bold Gamble or Strategic Necessity?
SpaceX’s ongoing strategic pivot may be a deeper variable behind its stock performance. According to media reports, SpaceX has stopped accepting new Falcon rocket launch bookings for 2028 and beyond and has paused rideshare reservations, redirecting resources entirely to the still-in-testing Starship.
The Falcon series has long been the backbone of global space launches and SpaceX’s most mature revenue stream. Halting new orders effectively sets an expiration date for this core business. This move demonstrates the company’s determination to prioritize Starship, but it also means a potential near-term revenue squeeze.
This is an unprecedented gamble. If Starship fails to reach commercial launch standards by the end of 2028, many space companies relying on SpaceX for orbital launches could face severe capacity shortfalls. The market has already priced in some of this risk—Starship’s successful test flight failed to lift the stock, underscoring that investors care more about the commercialization timeline and cash flow impact than technical milestones alone.
From Technical Milestones to Commercial Returns: SpaceX’s Long-Term Value Logic
Despite short-term headwinds from the lock-up expiration and negative market sentiment, Wall Street has not written off SpaceX’s long-term value proposition. According to Bloomberg, nearly 80% of analysts covering the stock rate it a "buy," with a consensus median target price near $225 per share.
Key fundamentals supporting this outlook include: SpaceX controls over 90% of the rocket launch market, maintaining a decade-long lead in commercial space technology and scale; the Starlink satellite internet business continues to expand, with V3 satellites set to further boost network capacity and service quality; and the company is moving into high-margin areas like low-latency on-orbit data centers and AI infrastructure.
Morgan Stanley analysts believe persistent selling has pushed the stock to a critical level, and that market pessimism is not matched by a deterioration in company fundamentals—creating an attractive opportunity for investors. However, this view hinges on Starship achieving commercialization within a reasonable timeframe, and on the lock-up expiration not fundamentally altering SpaceX’s ownership structure or governance.
Conclusion
SpaceX’s first Starship test flight post-IPO was a technical milestone: all 33 Raptor engines ignited, 20 Starlink V3 satellites were deployed, and the upper stage achieved the "softest splashdown" ever. Yet, SPCX closed at a record low of $115.07, highlighting a shift in how the market values technological breakthroughs. The IPO valuation bubble is deflating, lock-up expiration looms, Starship’s commercialization timeline remains unclear, and the AI business’s valuation is contested—all combining to prevent this major success from supporting the stock price.
For the crypto market, the Musk effect persists but is fading. SpaceX’s more than 18,000 Bitcoin holdings create a direct balance sheet link between SPCX and crypto assets, while Starship’s success may offer a temporary sentiment boost for Musk-linked cryptocurrencies like DOGE. However, with DOGE price remaining sluggish and waning sensitivity to Musk’s endorsements, the real impact of this transmission needs careful assessment.
SpaceX is navigating the growing pains of transitioning from private space pioneer to public company. The Starship technical roadmap is being validated, but the business model is only just beginning to be tested.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What were the main achievements of SpaceX Starship’s 13th test flight?
This flight achieved several breakthroughs: all 33 Raptor engines ignited successfully, the booster executed a controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico, Starship reignited an engine in orbit, 20 Starlink V3 satellites were deployed, and the upper stage made the "softest splashdown" ever in the Indian Ocean, remaining intact.
Q: Why did SPCX stock fall after the successful test flight?
The main factor is the anticipated end of the IPO lock-up period. Around 911.5 million shares will be unlocked on August 6, raising concerns about insider selling. Additionally, uncertainties around Starship commercialization, AI business valuation disputes, and continued lack of profitability are all weighing on the stock.
Q: What does SpaceX’s Bitcoin holding mean for investors?
SpaceX holds 18,712 Bitcoin as a strategic cash reserve. This means SPCX shareholders are indirectly exposed to Bitcoin price fluctuations, with holdings disclosed in each quarterly report.
Q: How does Starship’s successful test flight impact DOGE price?
Historically, major Musk-related events have triggered DOGE price swings. However, this effect is diminishing, and actual impact now depends on broader market sentiment at the time.
Q: What is the analyst outlook for SPCX’s long-term prospects?
Nearly 80% of analysts covering the stock rate it as a "buy," with a consensus median target price around $225. However, the stock faces short-term risks from the lock-up expiration and valuation correction.
