Bitcoin Breaks Below $60,000 as Crypto Market Enters Late-Stage Bear, True Bottom Unclear

According to Wintermute's latest market report released on June 30, Bitcoin broke below $60,000 and Ethereum declined in tandem, signaling the crypto market has entered late-stage bear market conditions, though the true cycle bottom may not yet be in place. The Fear and Greed Index remains between 18 and 24, with approximately half of Bitcoin's circulating supply underwater, indicators approaching historical bear market lows.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows of approximately $1.8 billion recently, and liquidity metrics remain unimproved. Wintermute expects the market is unlikely to reach bottom during the summer season due to historical seasonality, with the true bottom potentially arriving between September and October. The firm attributes near-term pressure to global AI sector cooling, a 4.1% May PCE inflation reading strengthening expectations for prolonged high U.S. interest rates, and capital rotation away from large-cap technology stocks.