According to analyst Murphy, Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics showed a significant crossover in late April, with the average transaction cost for holders of 1-2 years (long-term holders) intersecting with that of 1-3 month holders (short-term holders). This signal, based on chain data, indicates a shift in market structure. Additionally, the CVDD long-term valuation indicator developed by on-chain analyst Willy Woo reached $45,410 by late April, rising only $506 since February 10.
CVDD is considered one of Bitcoin’s most reliable historical indicators, with BTC price consistently remaining above this level. According to Murphy’s analysis, the current price floor stands around $45,500, suggesting a theoretical maximum downside of approximately 30%, though actual declines are likely to be smaller.
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