BTC rises 0.70% in 15 minutes: Weak employment data triggers rate cut expectations, coupled with concentrated short liquidation driving a short-term surge

On July 6, 2026, from 15:00 to 15:15 UTC, BTC quickly rose 0.70% in 15 minutes, with the price moving from 62,043.9 USDT to 62,585.5 USDT, an amplitude of 0.87%. The market rose from around 62,500 USD in early trading to a two-week high of 63,900 USD before retreating, with a 24-hour fluctuation range of about 1,400 USD. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in the 'Extreme Fear' zone at 24/100, but seller willingness has weakened.

The main driver of this unusual move is a sudden change in macro data. US non-farm payrolls for June 2026 added only 57K, far below the market expectation of 113K, with a total downward revision of 74K for April and May. The weak employment data strengthened market expectations that the Fed will accelerate rate cuts. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields both fell, reducing the opportunity cost of holding BTC, triggering concentrated short covering and new long entries.

At the same time, the liquidation effect of leveraged funds amplified the gains. Data shows that about $450 million worth of shorts were liquidated in the past 24 hours, of which 92.3% were short liquidations. Forced short covering in a short period pushed the price up sharply. In addition, on July 2, the US spot BTC ETF ended 10 consecutive days of net outflows, recording a net inflow of $221.7 million, providing a short-term institutional demand signal to the market. On-chain data also shows that whales continue to accumulate. In June, large wallets accumulated a total of 270,000 BTC, providing supply-side support for the price.

It is noteworthy that despite the short-term ETF inflows, the overall outflow in June was $4.15 billion, the worst monthly performance on record. The cumulative outflow for the year has reached $5.4 billion, indicating that institutional demand remains weak. BTC faces technical resistance near $64,000. If it fails to break through effectively, profit-taking may be triggered. Traders should be wary of short-term volatility risks and closely monitor macro policy trends and ETF fund flow changes.