CITIC: North American AI Power Demand Surge Drives Gas Turbine Supply Crunch

North American AI Power Demand Surge

CITIC Securities raised its North American AI power demand forecasts in a recent research report, projecting increases of 4%, 35%, and 42% for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively compared to its previous forecast. The three-year AI power demand compound annual growth rate is projected to reach 73%, according to the report.

Data Centers Shift to Captive Power Generation

The surge in AI computing demand is driving data centers to establish “captive power plants,” as slow grid interconnection speeds force independent power solutions. Gas turbines have emerged as the preferred baseload power source due to their lowest operating costs and highest efficiency. However, extended delivery lead times of 1–3 years have created a critical supply bottleneck, with orders already extending beyond 2028.

Supply Shortage Across Multiple Technologies

Beyond gas turbines, data centers are exploring alternative power generation methods, including internal combustion engines, solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC), aero-derivative turbines, and ship-derived engines, according to CITIC Securities.

Global Supply-Demand Gap Projections

CITIC Securities projects the following global supply-demand gaps for gas turbines specifically: 16GW in 2026, 16GW in 2027, and 19GW in 2028. When accounting for demand across all power generation methods, total global power generation demand is projected to reach 30GW in 2026, 42GW in 2027, and 59GW in 2028.

This sustained and expanding supply gap is driving a high-demand cycle for gas turbines, internal combustion engines, SOFC, and aero-derivative turbine supply chains, according to the CITIC Securities report.