CITIC Securities: U.S. Tech Bull Market May Face Deadline in 2028 as Leverage Surges to 25%

According to CITIC Securities, as of June, U.S. tech stocks have entered high-level consolidation, with the Nasdaq not ruling out a decline of over 10% from recent highs. The investment bank flagged that margin financing relative to stock indices has surged to 25%—a level previously linked to the market crashes of 2000, 2008, and 2022.

CITIC identified 2028 as a potential "deadline" for the U.S. tech bull market. The firm cited three primary risks: mounting Chinese AI competition challenging the cost-effectiveness of U.S. tech investments, traditional sector recovery narrowing tech advantages, and potential 2028 election-driven policy backlash including stricter AI regulation and antitrust action. Near-term, the bank expects consolidation; medium-term, resolution of current valuations will require either technological breakthroughs or policy headwinds.