According to CME FedWatch, as of early May 2026, the Federal Reserve has a 92.8% probability of keeping rates unchanged in June, with only a 7.2% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. For July, the probability of holding rates steady stands at 88.8%, with a 10.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut and 0.3% for a 50 basis point cut. By September, the probability of unchanged rates declines to 83%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut rises to 16%, with a 1% probability of a 50 basis point cut.
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