Figure Q1 Loan Volume Doubles; Bernstein Reiterates $67 Target

Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) posted $2.9 billion in first-quarter 2026 loan volume on Monday, up 113% year-over-year, prompting research and brokerage firm Bernstein to reiterate its Outperform rating and $67 price target on the stock, implying roughly 72% upside from FIGR’s current price of $38.97. The company’s adjusted net revenue came in at $167 million in Q1, beating consensus by 6% and up 92% year-over-year. Management guided Q2 loan volumes at $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion, roughly 35% above Q1.

Q1 Financial Performance

Figure’s adjusted EBITDA reached $82.7 million — approximately a 50% margin — edging past the $80 million consensus estimate. However, GAAP diluted EPS of $0.18 missed estimates by 9%, driven by $26 million in stock-based compensation, down from $40 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani noted in a Tuesday note to clients that the Q2 loan volume guidance range was unsurprising given that April volumes alone reached approximately $1.34 billion, a monthly record for the company.

Figure Connect Platform Growth

The quarter’s most consequential structural data point was Figure Connect, the company’s blockchain-based credit origination marketplace. The platform accounted for 56% of total loan volumes, up from 54% the prior quarter, as the distribution partner network grew to 387. New additions included Flagstar Bank, a top-35 U.S. bank by assets and the sixth-largest mortgage lender in the U.S.

Net take-rate held flat at 3.8% despite first-lien loan share rising to 20% of total volumes, a mix shift that would typically compress margins in a conventional lending business.

Bernstein’s Investment Thesis

The Bernstein analysts argued that the Q1 print should force a reframing of how investors approach the stock. They described the results as “zero crypto beta, full tokenization upside.” The firm said FIGR is better understood as a blockchain capital markets platform collecting platform fees, where Figure Connect’s rising share of volumes is the central driver of earnings via operating leverage. As such, Bernstein values the stock at 25 times estimated 2027 EBITDA, a premium to traditional exchanges and crypto peers, reflecting the structural growth thesis.

Tokenization and Ecosystem Metrics

Broader ecosystem metrics add weight to that framing. YLDS, Figure’s SEC-registered, yield-bearing security token backed by short-term Treasurys, hit $598 million in supply, up 80% quarter-over-quarter. Democratized Prime matched balances, which redirect stock-lending economics to shareholders, reached $368 million, up 79% quarter-over-quarter.

Small business loans contributed $60 million in the quarter, marking their first meaningful period of activity. Figure is also expanding its product set beyond home equity loans into auto lending and additional mortgage categories.

Analyst Coverage History

Bernstein has covered Figure since initiating coverage in October 2025 at a $54 price target, calling it the category leader with roughly 75% share of the tokenized private credit market. The target was raised to $72 in January 2026 when Bernstein named FIGR its top pick for the year, but was revised to the current $67 in March 2026.

Figure completed its IPO at $36 per share in September 2025, with a valuation surpassing $7 billion at listing. FIGR shares traded at $38.97 on Tuesday, down 4.6% year-to-date against an 8.3% gain in the S&P 500. The stock’s 52-week range runs from $25.01 to $78.00.

FAQ

What drove Figure’s Q1 loan volume growth? Figure posted $2.9 billion in Q1 2026 loan volume, up 113% year-over-year, with adjusted net revenue of $167 million (6% above consensus) and adjusted EBITDA of $82.7 million at approximately a 50% margin, according to the company’s earnings announcement.

What is Figure Connect and why does it matter? Figure Connect is the company’s blockchain-based credit origination marketplace, which accounted for 56% of total loan volumes in Q1 (up from 54% in Q4 2025) with a distribution partner network of 387 banks and lenders. Bernstein highlighted this platform as the central driver of earnings through operating leverage, with the company maintaining a flat 3.8% take-rate despite a shift toward higher first-lien loans.

Why did Bernstein describe Figure as having “zero crypto beta, full tokenization upside”? Bernstein reframed Figure as a blockchain capital markets platform collecting platform fees rather than a traditional lending business, valuing the stock at 25 times estimated 2027 EBITDA. This reflects the structural growth thesis driven by Figure Connect’s rising share of volumes and ecosystem metrics: YLDS token supply reached $598 million (up 80% QoQ) and Democratized Prime balances hit $368 million (up 79% QoQ).