Galaxy Research Downgrades CLARITY Act 2026 Passage Probability to 50% from 60%

According to Galaxy Research's latest report released on June 29, the research firm has downgraded the probability of the U.S. CLARITY Act (digital asset market structure and investor protection legislation) passing in 2026 to 50% from 60% three weeks prior, citing continued compression of the Senate's legislative schedule.

The act has cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May and was added to the Senate's legislative agenda, but the committees have not yet reconciled their versions or scheduled a full chamber vote. Galaxy Research noted that for the bill to be approved before the August congressional recess, Senate Majority Leadership must schedule a vote by early July; otherwise, the process will likely be delayed to September and face mid-term election political factors.