Galaxy Research Head Lowers CLARITY Act Passage Odds to 30% on July 24 Amid Vote Deficit

According to Alex Thorn, Galaxy Digital's research head, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing Congress by year-end dropped from 50% to 30% on July 24. The comprehensive bill text, released this week with 616 pages and 104 provisions, faces a significant vote gap. Republicans hold about 50 reliable votes but need 60 to clear extended debate; senators Hawley and Paul plan to vote against, and McConnell has not voted since hospitalization in June. Seven Democratic senators who participated in negotiations jointly stated the current text is insufficient, opposing the ethics clause's Department of Justice-only enforcement and the 2029 sunset provision. Senator Elizabeth Warren called for the bill's outright rejection.

Thorn identified July 30 as the actual legislative deadline, not the official August 7 recess date, citing procedural timelines. Without Senate passage before recess, the bill's chances of becoming law in 2026 would narrow significantly.