Spot gold and silver prices declined Thursday ahead of the North American market open, as rising U.S. Treasury yields, a firmer U.S. dollar, and surging crude oil prices outweighed safe-haven demand tied to U.S.-Iran tensions. At the time of writing, spot gold traded near $4,066.82 an ounce, down 1.52%, while spot silver traded near $58.06, down 2.75%. The European Central Bank left its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.25% after a June hike, citing high uncertainty around the energy shock, while U.S. initial jobless claims dropped to 187,000, reinforcing contained layoff trends despite cooler hiring momentum. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.714% at 8:30 a.m. ET, its highest level in the current move, lifting real-rate expectations and reducing appeal for non-yielding bullion amid ongoing geopolitical risk in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping lanes.
ECB Holds Rate at 2.25% as U.S. Jobless Claims Drop to 187,000
The European Central Bank left its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.25% after a June hike, emphasizing that uncertainty around the energy shock remains high. In the U.S., initial jobless claims dropped to 187,000, reinforcing the view that layoffs remain contained even as hiring momentum has cooled. The data leave markets treating the Fed's July 29 meeting as a hold, with oil-driven inflation risk keeping later-year hike pricing alive. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.714% at 8:30 a.m. ET, while the dollar stayed firm. Gold's early range was $4,072.20 to $4,141.70, leaving the metal back below the $4,100 area and under the $4,148 trendline resistance. Silver's early range was $57.21 to $60.95, with the metal failing to hold the $60.75 breakout level and retreating toward the $58.73 support area.
Strait of Hormuz Tensions and Red Sea Attacks Widen Shipping Risk
The Strait of Hormuz situation is characterized as open but severely impaired transit under active military pressure. U.S. Central Command said the latest strikes were aimed at degrading Iran's ability to threaten civilian mariners and commercial vessels, while Iran and the U.S. remain dug in over control of the strait. Houthi attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea have widened the shipping-risk map beyond Hormuz and raised doubts about Saudi and Gulf workarounds through Bab el-Mandeb. Brent crude moved past $98 a barrel and WTI traded near $90 as traders priced simultaneous chokepoint risk. For gold, the geopolitical bid is being offset by the inflation-rate channel.
Spot Gold Technical Outlook Shows Resistance at $4,148
Spot gold bulls have lost some near-term momentum as prices slipped below the 100-period moving average at $4,083 and failed to clear descending trendline resistance at $4,148. Bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above $4,148, with a sustained move targeting $4,200 and then $4,246. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,075, with deeper downside targets at $4,020 and then $3,957. First resistance is seen at $4,148 and then at $4,200. First support is seen at $4,075 and then at $4,020. Traders are watching ECB President Christine Lagarde's follow-up guidance, Fed communication before next week's July 29 policy decision, Friday's U.S. flash PMI data, and further disruption to Hormuz or Red Sea shipping lanes. A sustained move below $4,075 would put gold's short-term recovery at risk, while a close back above $4,148 would improve the technical setup.
Spot Silver Retreats from $60.75 Breakout Level
Spot silver bulls have lost near-term momentum after prices failed to hold above the $60.75 breakout level and pulled back toward the 50-period moving average at $58.50 and the 100-period moving average at $58.34. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $60.75, with a move above that level targeting $61.88 and then $63.18. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $58.73, with deeper downside targets at $57.47 and then $56.12. First resistance is seen at $60.75 and then at $61.88. Next support is seen at $58.73 and then at $57.47. The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply higher and trading near $90.00 a barrel, while Brent crude was above $98.00. The U.S. dollar index is firmer.
FAQ
What caused gold and silver prices to drop Thursday?
Spot gold and silver prices declined Thursday as rising U.S. Treasury yields, a firmer U.S. dollar, and surging crude oil prices outweighed safe-haven demand tied to U.S.-Iran tensions. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.714% at 8:30 a.m. ET, lifting real-rate expectations and reducing appeal for non-yielding bullion.
What did the ECB decide on its benchmark rate?
The European Central Bank left its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.25% after a June hike, emphasizing that uncertainty around the energy shock remains high.
What are the key technical levels for spot gold?
Spot gold's first resistance is at $4,148 and then at $4,200, while first support is at $4,075 and then at $4,020. Bulls aim to push prices back above $4,148, targeting $4,200 and $4,246, while bears target a break below $4,075 toward $4,020 and $3,957.
